Rhys R. Mendes - Latest

• November 13, 2014

  Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison

  When constrained by the zero lower bound, some central banks have communicated a threshold that must be met before short-term interest rates would be permitted to rise. Simulation results for Canada show that forward guidance that is conditional on achieving a price-level threshold can theoretically raise demand and inflation expectations by significantly more than unemployment thresholds. This superior performance is attributable to the fact that the price-level threshold depends on past inflation outcomes. In practice, however, history-dependent thresholds such as this might be more challenging for central banks to communicate.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
• May 17, 2012

  Inflation Targeting: The Recent International Experience

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Robert Lavigne, Rhys R. Mendes, Subrata Sarker

  In the years since the 2006 renewal of Canada’s inflation-control agreement, monetary policy regimes have faced significant shocks, including the global economic and financial crisis. This article reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting, including the debate about the appropriate role of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability. In the aftermath of the crisis, both […]

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Credibility, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
• August 18, 2011

  Introducing Multiple Interest rates in ToTEM

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 José Dorich, Rhys R. Mendes, Yang Zhang

  This article describes changes to the structure of ToTEM—the Bank of Canada’s main model for projection and policy analysis—that allow an independent role for long-term interest rates, as well as for the risk spreads that lead to differences in the interest rates faced by households, firms and the government. These changes broaden the range of policy questions that the model can address and improve its ability to explain data. The authors use the model to simulate the effects of shocks to the risk spreads on interest rates similar to those that occurred during the recent financial crisis. They also use the model to assess the macroeconomic impact of higher requirements for bank capital and liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates
• August 19, 2010

  Conference Summary: New Frontiers in Monetary Policy Design

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Robert Amano, Kevin Devereux, Rhys R. Mendes

  Although the current inflation-targeting regime has served Canadians well, sound public policy demands the continuous exploration of possible improvements in the monetary policy framework.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
• November 11, 2009

  Declining Inflation Persistence in Canada: Causes and Consequences

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2009-2010 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison

  The persistence of both core and total consumer price index inflation in Canada has declined significantly since the 1980s. In addition to providing up-to-date estimates of inflation persistence, this article examines possible reasons for the decline suggested in the literature. The role played by monetary policy, through its effect on price- and wage-setting behaviour, is distinguished from possible changes to the structure of the economy that are independent of monetary policy. The authors also discuss the implications for monetary policy of low structural persistence in inflation, including the choice of an inflation-targeting regime versus a price-level-targeting regime.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework