View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
Chart 1: Household income and spending expectations
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Expected income growth, next 12 months | 3.17 | 2.87 | 2.86 | 2.90 | 3.12 |
| Expected spending growth, next 12 months | 5.05 | 4.82 | 4.61 | 4.34 | 4.57 |
Chart 2: House price growth expectations
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Atlantic | 3.94 | 4.40 | 5.20 | 5.02 | 7.15 |
| Quebec | 2.55 | 4.03 | 4.83 | 4.60 | 4.74 |
| Ontario | 2.24 | 4.63 | 4.92 | 4.14 | 4.74 |
| Manitoba | 2.23 | 3.33 | 2.81 | 4.25 | 6.72 |
| Saskatchewan | 2.06 | 3.59 | 4.40 | 5.71 | 4.02 |
| Alberta | 2.36 | 4.06 | 4.92 | 4.12 | 5.35 |
| British Columbia | 2.22 | 4.56 | 5.03 | 4.15 | 4.21 |
| Canada | 2.33 | 4.34 | 4.88 | 4.38 | 4.84 |
Chart 3: Inflation expectations
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 6.03 | 5.09 | 5.03 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
| 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 4.27 | 3.93 | 4.04 | 3.94 | 3.76 |
| 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.92 | 2.89 | 2.75 | 2.62 | 3.12 |
| Perceptions about current inflation | 7.12 | 7.02 | 6.60 | 5.90 | 5.25 |
Chart 4: Inflation expectations: uncertainty
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months (in 12 to 24 months / five years), the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...) | |||||
| Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.17 | 2.06 | 2.02 |
| Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.22 | 2.05 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.96 |
| Uncertainty, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.13 | 2.52 | 1.76 | 1.82 | 1.95 |
Chart 5: Labour turnover
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept? | |||||
| Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale) | 10.93 | 10.27 | 10.61 | 10.87 | 10.80 |
| Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale) | 19.46 | 19.62 | 20.06 | 15.87 | 19.26 |
| Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale) | 50.56 | 50.05 | 49.72 | 49.13 | 49.44 |
Chart 6: Wage growth expectations
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 6.03 | 5.09 | 5.03 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
| Expected wage growth, next 12 months | 2.62 | 2.57 | 2.72 | 2.73 | 2.76 |
| Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months | 2.16 | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.26 | 2.31 |
Chart 7: Interest rate expectations
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now? | |||||
| 1 year ahead | 5.99 | 5.21 | 5.96 | 5.93 | 5.14 |
| 2 years ahead | 5.19 | 5.04 | 5.87 | 5.95 | 5.09 |
| 5 years ahead | 4.97 | 4.92 | 5.04 | 5.17 | 4.88 |
Chart 8: Components of inflation
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items? | |||||
| Gasoline | 5.51 | 5.58 | 5.94 | 5.44 | 5.06 |
| Food | 7.45 | 6.55 | 7.14 | 5.78 | 5.24 |
| Cars | 5.74 | 5.64 | 7.04 | 6.47 | 5.59 |
| Rent | 9.17 | 9.19 | 9.51 | 9.29 | 7.94 |
Chart 9: Economic outlook
| Series | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents) | |||||
| Significant decline | 20.07 | 16.04 | 21.47 | 22.76 | 17.15 |
| Small decline | 37.85 | 34.35 | 34.02 | 38.61 | 34.68 |
| No change | 27.21 | 33.18 | 30.48 | 27.98 | 33.79 |
| Some growth | 13.27 | 15.16 | 13.33 | 9.63 | 13.06 |
| Strong growth | 1.60 | 1.26 | 0.70 | 1.02 | 1.32 |