Staff research, Publications

• March 24, 2020

  COVID-19: Actions to Support the Economy and Financial System

  Learn about the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Bank’s actions to support the Canadian economy and financial system.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles

• The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News

  Staff Working Paper 2020-8 Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger, Jianjian Jin

  We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G14, G15, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency

  Staff Working Paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu

  Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52

• A Uniform Currency in a Cashless Economy

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-7 Walter Engert, Ben Fung

  A number of questions can arise when considering the implications of a cashless society. This note considers whether cash is necessary for a uniform currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5

• A Portfolio-Balance Model of Inflation and Yield Curve Determination

  Staff Working Paper 2020-6 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  How does the supply of nominal government debt affect the macroeconomy? To answer this question, we propose a portfolio-balance model of the yield curve in which inflation is determined through an interest rate rule.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63

• IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

  Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47

• Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results

  Staff Working Paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin

  Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40
• March 6, 2020

  Evaluating our approach to monetary policy

  

  James (Jim) C. MacGee, Rhys R. Mendes

  Inflation targeting has been successful in Canada over the past 30 years. But is it the best we can do? The Bank of Canada asks itself, and Canadians, that question every five years.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Price stability
• February 29, 2020

  Research Update - February 2020

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Technology Approach for a CBDC

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-6 Dinesh Shah, Rakesh Arora, Han Du, Sriram Darbha, John Miedema, Cyrus Minwalla

  In this note, we highlight a range of technical options and considerations in designing a contingent system for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in Canada and explore how these options achieve stated public policy goals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3, O31