Research
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Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach
The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil. -
Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability
The authors study the implications of fiscal policy behaviour for sovereign risk in a framework that determines a country’s fiscal limit, the point at which, for economic or political reasons, taxes and spending can no longer adjust to stabilize debt. -
Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. -
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date.