Research
-
-
What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices
Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions. -
Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model
We conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a non-decreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms. -
A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events
The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.