Modèles indicateurs du PIB réel pour quatre pays d'Europe et le Japon

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For the five overseas countries considered in this study (Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan), data on real GDP are released on a quarterly basis at least two months after the end-of-quarter. Other indicators of economic activity are published sooner than real GDP data, however. The purpose of this study is to present some simple models to forecast the quarter-over-quarter growth of real GDP for the current quarter (or the quarter just completed for which figures have not yet been released) in each of the overseas economies noted above. These models rely primarily on the information provided by monthly indicators of economic activity selected on the basis of their ability to predict changes in real GDP in the late 1980s and early 1990s.