Econometric and statistical methods

• The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment

  Staff Working Paper 2006-1 Robert Lavigne

  The author empirically assesses the effects of institutional and political factors on the need and willingness of governments to make large fiscal adjustments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, O, O1, O17, O19

• An Evaluation of MLE in a Model of the Nonlinear Continuous-Time Short-Term Interest Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2005-45 Ingrid Lo

  The author compares the performance of three Gaussian approximation methods - by Nowman (1997), Shoji and Ozaki (1998), and Yu and Phillips (2001) - in estimating a model of the nonlinear continuous-time short-term interest rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E4

• Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-44 Frédérick Demers, Annie De Champlain

  The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, E37

• Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2005-41 Frédérick Demers

  The author proposes and evaluates econometric models that try to explain and forecast real quarterly housing expenditures in Canada. Structural and leading-indicator models of the Canadian housing sector are described.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, R, R2, R21

• An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia

  Staff Working Paper 2005-38 Marc-André Gosselin, Nicolas Parent

  Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process

  Staff Working Paper 2005-35 Fuchun Li

  A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14

• Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information

  Staff Working Paper 2005-31 Frédérick Demers, David Dupuis

  The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E1, E17

• Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money

  Staff Working Paper 2005-30 Ali Dib, Louis Phaneuf

  The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2005-27 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

• Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2005-16 René Lalonde

  The linkages between inflation and the economy's cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52