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8244 Results

May 10, 1996

Financing activities of provincial governments and their enterprises

This article examines the changes that have occurred in the composition of funds raised by provincial borrowers during the 1990s. Higher financing requirements, coupled with the declining availability of funds from non-market sources such as the Canada Pension Plan, led provincial governments and their Crown corporations to broaden and to diversify their debt management programs. In particular, provincial borrowers expanded their presence in foreign bond markets, increased their issuance of floating-rate debt, and incorporated a wide variety of innovative debt instruments into their borrowing programs in order to minimize their borrowing costs and to manage the risks associated with the issuing of debt. As a result, the composition of funds raised by provincial borrowers during the 1990s differed markedly from that of the previous decade: between 1990 and 1995, provincial borrowing requirements were met almost entirely through the issuance of marketable debt, and net new foreign currency debt issues averaged nearly 50 per cent of funds raised, whereas between 1980 and 1989, non-market sources provided close to 30 per cent of funds raised, and net new foreign currency debt issues provided less than 20 per cent.
May 9, 1996

The role of inventory management in Canadian economic fluctuations

Swings in inventory investment have traditionally played a major role in Canadian business cycles. However, advances in inventory-control techniques and the reduced uncertainty associated with lower inflation have enabled firms to manage their inventories much more tightly and effectively. This article examines recent developments in the management of non-farm business inventories in Canada at both the aggregate and the sectoral level and looks at implications for the role of inventories as a source of economic fluctuation.

An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada

Staff Working Paper 1996-7 Denise Côté, Doug Hostland
This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24

The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 3. The Dynamic Model: QPM

The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent behavioural structure necessary for policy analysis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17

Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis

Staff Working Paper 1996-6 Stella Cheung
The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): H, H6, H63

A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria

A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.

Overnight Rate Innovations as a Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks in Vector Autoregressions

Staff Working Paper 1996-4 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Jamie Armour
The authors examine the Bank of Canada's overnight rate as a measure of monetary policy in vector autoregression (VAR) models. Since the time series of the Bank's current measure of the overnight rate begins only in 1971, the authors splice it to day loan rate observations to obtain a sufficiently long period of data.

Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology

Staff Working Paper 1996-2 Pierre St-Amant
In this paper, the author uses structural vector autoregression methodology to decompose U.S. nominal interest rates into an expected inflation component and an ex ante real interest rate component. He identifies inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rate shocks by assuming that nominal interest rates and inflation expectations move one-for-one in the long-run—they are cointegrated (1,1)—and that the real interest rate is stationary.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
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