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413 Results

Non-Bank Financial Intermediation in Canada: An Update

Staff discussion paper 2019-2 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé
Non-bank financing provides an important funding source for the economy and is a valuable alternative to traditional banking. It helps enhance the efficiency and resiliency of the financial system while giving customers more choices for their financial services. Unlike banking, it is not prudentially regulated.

Liquidity Management of Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: A Machine Learning Approach

Staff analytical note 2019-7 Rohan Arora, Chen Fan, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc
When redeeming shares for investors, bond fund managers must choose a mix of cash and bond sales to honour their commitments. This note uses machine learning algorithms to uncover new patterns in decisions fund managers make to meet redemptions.

Macroprudential Policy with Capital Buffers

Staff working paper 2019-8 Josef Schroth
The countercyclical capital buffer is part of Basel III, the set of regulatory measures developed in response to the financial crisis of 2007–09. This study focuses on how time-varying capital buffers can address inefficiencies in economies with endogenous financial crises.

Inequality in Parental Transfers and Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid

Staff working paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park
This paper studies optimal need-based financial aid when parental transfers—unobserved by policymakers—vary across and within families of similar means. Using data on U.S. college students, I document substantial inequality in parental transfers, especially among wealthier families. I then analyze how this affects aid design aimed at reducing inefficiencies from borrowing constraints and the aid itself.

Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles

Staff working paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic
Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks.

Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity

Staff working paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu
This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market.

The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates

Staff analytical note 2019-1 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research.

The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?

Staff working paper 2018-59 Xiaodan Gao, Shaofeng Xu
We document countercyclical corporate saving behavior with the degree of countercyclicality varying nonmonotonically with firm size. We then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to explain the pattern and study its implications for business cycles.

Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada

Staff discussion paper 2018-16 Taylor Webley
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.
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