The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff analytical note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report Staff analytical note 2025-19 Elba Gomez Navas Acevedo, Thomas Thorn We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2023. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff discussion paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? Staff discussion paper 2025-7 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi Staff working paper 2025-12 Phoebe Tian, Yu Zhu This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G2, G20, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Will Asset Managers Dash for Cash? Implications for Central Banks Staff discussion paper 2025-5 David Cimon, Jean-Philippe Dion, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu We consider ways central banks could adapt in the event of an increased risk of a dash for cash from asset managers. We explore ideas such as new facilities that ease asset managers’ ability to convert existing assets to cash or new assets with liquidity that central banks would guarantee. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Contingent Term Repo Facility: Lessons learned and an update Staff analytical note 2025-12 Jessie Ziqing Chen, Parnell Chu, Scott Kinnear In 2024, the Bank of Canada reviewed and updated its Contingent Term Repo Facility policy, incorporating lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and other global market developments, such as the UK gilt crisis in September 2022. This paper accompanies the March 17, 2025, Contingent Term Repo Facility market notice and provides background information and further details about the design of the revised policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F6, F68, G, G0, G01, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Stress testing central counterparties for resolution planning Staff analytical note 2025-11 Katherine Brennan, Bo Young Chang, Alper Odabasioglu, Radoslav Raykov The Bank of Canada completed its first resolution plan for the Canadian Derivatives and Clearing Corporation (CDCC) in 2024. To estimate the resolution costs, we apply the extreme value theory method to simulate the credit losses that would result from extreme scenarios where multiple clearing members default at the same time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G17, G2, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking Staff working paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks Staff analytical note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight