Volatility Risk and Economic Welfare Staff working paper 2017-20 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Strategic Complementarities and Money Market Fund Liquidity Management Staff working paper 2017-14 Jonathan Witmer Following the financial crisis, there has been increased regulatory focus on the management of liquidity in mutual funds and, specifically, whether funds hold enough liquidity to guard against the potential for investor runs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads Staff analytical note 2017-2 Maxime Leboeuf, James Pinnington The spread between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a similar Government of Canada bond reflects compensation for possible default by the issuing firm and compensation for additional risks beyond default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects Staff working paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Banking Regulation and Market Making Staff working paper 2017-7 David Cimon, Corey Garriott We model how securities dealers respond to regulations on leverage, position and liquidity such as those imposed by the Basel III framework. We show that while asset prices exhibit greater price impact, bid-ask spreads do not change and trading volumes may even increase. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight
Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative Staff discussion paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Information Sharing and Bargaining in Buyer-Seller Networks Staff working paper 2016-63 Sofia Priazhkina, Frank H. Page This paper presents a model of strategic buyer-seller networks with information exchange between sellers. Prior to engaging in bargaining with buyers, sellers can share access to buyers for a negotiated transfer. We study how this information exchange affects overall market prices, volumes and welfare, given different initial market conditions and information sharing rules. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C7, C71, C78, D, D2, D21, D4, D43, D8, D85, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty Staff working paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Non-Bank Investors and Loan Renegotiations Staff working paper 2016-60 Teodora Paligorova, João Santos We document that the structure of syndicates affects loan renegotiations. Lead banks with large retained shares have positive effects on renegotiations. In contrast, more diverse syndicates deter renegotiations, but only for credit lines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate Staff working paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk