Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis Staff Working Paper 2005-27 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation? Staff Working Paper 2005-15 Hafedh Bouakez, Takashi Kano In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, J, J2, J22
Prévision et analyse de la production manufacturière au Canada : comparaison de modèles linéaires et non linéaires Staff Working Paper 2004-40 Frédérick Demers In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53
A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada Staff Working Paper 2004-39 Marwan Chacra, Maral Kichian The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E2, E22, E6, E62
The U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment Staff Working Paper 2004-35 Alain Guay, Florian Pelgrin The authors examine the evidence presented by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001, 2003) that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods Staff Working Paper 2004-11 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices Staff Working Paper 2004-5 Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian The authors test the statistical significance of Pindyck's (1999) suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, Q, Q4, Q40
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2004-2 Richard Luger The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53
The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting Staff Working Paper 2003-32 Frédérick Demers Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices Staff Working Paper 2003-24 René Lalonde, Zhenhua Zhu, Frédérick Demers The authors develop simple econometric models to analyze and forecast two components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index: the Bank of Canada non-energy (BCNE) commodity prices and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price. They present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5