Will exchange-traded funds shape the future of bond dealing? Staff analytical note 2020-16 Rohan Arora, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc Bond dealers have traditionally kept bonds in an inventory until clients buy them. But now, dealers have another way to access bonds for their clients: the exchange-traded fund. We discuss this new way to manage bond dealing and what it might mean for bond markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Ten Isn’t Large! Group Size and Coordination in a Large-Scale Experiment Staff working paper 2020-30 Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker, Isabelle Salle Economic activities typically involve coordination among a large number of agents. These agents have to anticipate what other agents think before making their own decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, D9, D90, G, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada Staff analytical note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E44, E5, G, G1, G10, G17, G2, G21, G3, G32, O Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
An Economic Perspective on Payments Migration Staff working paper 2020-24 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu, Gabriel Xerri Consumers, businesses and banks make millions of payments each day using a variety of instruments, such as debit cards, cheques and wires. Canada is currently developing three new systems to process these transactions: Lynx, Settlement Optimization Engine (SOE) and Real-Time Rail (RTR). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets Staff working paper 2020-22 Jason Allen, Shaoteng Li Repeated interactions between borrowers and lenders create the possibility of dynamic pricing: lenders compete aggressively with low prices to attract new borrowers and then raise their prices once borrowers have made a commitment. We find such pricing patterns in the Canadian mortgage market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit
Trading on Long-term Information Staff working paper 2020-20 Corey Garriott, Ryan Riordan Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19 Staff analytical note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, D14, E, E2, E24, E27, E6, E62, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers Staff working paper 2020-18 Katya Kartashova, Xiaoqing Zhou We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
The Effect of Mortgage Rate Resets on Debt: Evidence from TransUnion (Part I) Staff analytical note 2020-2 Katya Kartashova This note studies how decreases in mortgage rates affect the behaviour of borrowers in terms of spending on durable goods and repaying debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Contagion in Dealer Networks Staff working paper 2020-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Adrian Walton Dealers connect investors who want to buy or sell securities in financial markets. Over time, dealers and investors form trading networks to save time and resources. An emerging field of research investigates how networks form. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk