June 9, 2016 Financial System Review - June 2016 The Financial System Review concludes that the overall level of risk to Canada’s financial system is largely unchanged from six months ago. While household vulnerabilities have moved higher, the ongoing economic recovery in Canada means that the overall risk remains the same. The Bank highlights three vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness, imbalances in some regional housing markets and the fragility of liquidity in fixed-income markets. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality Staff discussion paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
June 1, 1994 Summer 1994 Mark Kruger, Robert Lafrance Canada's net external indebtedness increased from $110 billion in 1980 to $313 billion in 1993, reflecting the accumulation of current account deficits over many years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff working paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk Staff working paper 2017-59 Maarten van Oordt The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
May 13, 2014 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 The five articles in this issue present research and analysis by Bank staff covering a variety of topics: the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves; the emergence of platform-based digital currencies; methods of forecasting the real price of oil; measures of uncertainty in monetary policy; and the recent performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Interconnected Banks and Systemically Important Exposures Staff working paper 2019-44 Alan Roncoroni, Stefano Battiston, Marco D’Errico, Grzegorz Halaj, Christoffer Kok How do banks' interconnections in the euro area contribute to the vulnerability of the banking system? We study both the direct interconnections (banks lend to each other) and the indirect interconnections (banks are exposed to similar sectors of the economy). These complex linkages make the banking system more vulnerable to contagion risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G15, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Should Bank Capital Regulation Be Risk Sensitive? Staff working paper 2018-48 Toni Ahnert, James Chapman, Carolyn A. Wilkins We present a simple model to study the risk sensitivity of capital regulation. A banker funds investment with uninsured deposits and costly capital, where capital resolves a moral hazard problem in the banker’s choice of risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff discussion paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Climate change
Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios Staff analytical note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness