Price Selection Staff working paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations Staff discussion paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—In focus—War‑related supply disruptions are passing through to consumer prices The conflict in the Middle East has generated both direct and indirect cost pressures that continue to feed through supply chains. These cost pressures are material for the inflation outlook.
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers Staff working paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
January 13, 2014 Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2013-14 The winter Business Outlook Survey provides some positive signs for the economic outlook, notably for exports and investment, although responses do not yet appear to suggest a significant strengthening. For many businesses, weak demand and domestic uncertainty continue to temper sales expectations and expansion plans. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
May 1, 2001 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement David Dodge House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance The Report provides our latest assessment of the outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada. Before I give you a flavour of that assessment, I would like to say a word about the objective of Canadian monetary policy and how we go about achieving it. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
October 19, 2006 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement David Dodge House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance In our latest Monetary Policy Report, which we released this morning, we judge that the Canadian economy is currently operating just above capacity. While global economic growth is expected to be a little higher than previously anticipated, a weaker near-term outlook for the U.S. economy has curbed the near-term prospects for Canadian exports and growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
October 24, 2001 The Canadian Economy: Current and Future Challenges Remarks David Dodge Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce and the Conseil économique du Nouveau-Brunswick Moncton, New Brunswick All of us at the Bank of Canada share a deep sorrow at the loss of so many lives in the 11 September terrorist attacks in the United States. Among those who died were innocent citizens of many nationalities, including Canadians. To their families, friends, and colleagues we extend our heartfelt sympathy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
October 16, 2017 Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2017 Results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey point to continued positive business sentiment across the country, with business activity becoming entrenched. Firms’ prospects remain healthy, although several survey indicators have moderated from the strong summer results. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
January 17, 2005 Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2004-05 Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook but less so than in the autumn survey. The appreciation of the Canadian dollar between the survey periods has heightened uncertainty among businesses and dampened the expectations of those adversely affected by the rising dollar.Supplemental questions on the appreciation of the Canadian dollar - Winter 2004-05 Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey