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Consumers believe inflation has fallen, but their expectations for inflation in the near term are showing little progress in returning to pre-pandemic levels. Slow progress may be due to persistently high inflation expectations for services such as rent. In addition, consumers increasingly think domestic factors, such as high government spending, are supporting high inflation, and they believe these factors will take longer to resolve than global factors. Consumers have adjusted their behaviour in response to prolonged high inflation—more people are paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset it, are dissipating. The negative effects of high interest rates are broadening, and indicators of household financial stress are deteriorating. Consumers remain uncertain about the economic outlook, and this uncertainty is weighing on their spending plans. Workers think the labour market has weakened slightly. However, expectations for wage growth remain high, supported by cost-of-living adjustments in some workers’ wage contracts.

This article describes changes to the structure of ToTEM—the Bank of Canada’s main model for projection and policy analysis—that allow an independent role for long-term interest rates, as well as for the risk spreads that lead to differences in the interest rates faced by households, firms and the government. These changes broaden the range of policy questions that the model can address and improve its ability to explain data. The authors use the model to simulate the effects of shocks to the risk spreads on interest rates similar to those that occurred during the recent financial crisis. They also use the model to assess the macroeconomic impact of higher requirements for bank capital and liquidity.

In January, CARR announced the development of a Term CORRA benchmark that was designed to be a robust benchmark that adheres to IOSCO’s Principles for Financial Benchmarks.

Canadian financial markets need trust and transparency to operate most efficiently, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said today in a speech to the Greater Halifax Partnership. Mr. Dodge said that the Bank of Canada's reliance on trust and transparency shows why these qualities are also important to the private sector.

The Bank of Canada is pleased to announce the recipient of its 2012 Law Enforcement Award of Excellence for Counterfeit Deterrence. The RCMP Integrated Counterfeit Enforcement Team, based in Surrey, British Columbia, was honoured for the second consecutive year during the annual conference of the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police in Sydney, Nova Scotia. […]

Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada.

We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001.

We analyze the dynamic and heterogeneous responses of small-business loan performance to a monetary-policy shock using loan-level data in Canada. We find evidence of monetary policy transmission through the cash-flow channel and the aggregate demand channel as well as some, though limited, impact of collateral to discipline loan repayment.

Throughout the current financial crisis, central banks have engaged in continuous close consultation and have cooperated in unprecedented joint actions such as the provision of liquidity to reduce strains in financial markets.

A well-functioning monetary system is characterized by public and private forms of money that exchange at par as value flows freely between them. A relevant retail public money—whether in the form of cash, a central bank digital currency or both—is a necessary component of such a monetary system.