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Queen's motto is Sapientia et Doctrina Stabilitas, which we generally translate as "Wisdom and knowledge shall be the strength of thy times." This motto is especially pertinent to you as engineers graduating today.

Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses how Canada manages its foreign exchange reserves.

The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used measure to track changes in the overall level of prices. Since it departs from a true cost-of-living index, the CPI is subject to four types of measurement bias—commodity substitution, outlet substitution, new goods and quality adjustment. The author updates previous Bank of Canada estimates of measurement bias in the Canadian CPI by examining these four sources of potential bias. He finds the total measurement bias over the 2005–11 period to be about 0.5 percentage point per year, consistent with the Bank’s earlier findings. Slightly more than half of this bias is caused by the fixed nature of the CPI basket of goods and services.

Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an update on when quantitative tightening will end and explains how the Bank of Canada will manage its balance sheet going forward.

We consider introducing an expiry date for offline digital currency balances. Consumers whose digital cash expired would automatically receive the funds back into their online account. This functionality could increase demand for digital cash, with the time to expiry playing a key role.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of a country’s total economic output—the total value of all goods and services produced within that country—usually over the course of one year.

The Canadian economy ended 2024 strong. However, the escalating trade conflict is diminishing growth prospects. While tariffs are expected to increase price pressures, removing the consumer carbon tax has lowered energy prices. The unpredictability of US trade policy, and the speed and magnitude of the shifts, are making the economic outlook very uncertain.

US tariffs are significantly higher than they were at the start of 2025, and US trade policy remains unpredictable. Inflation is near 2%, although underlying price pressures have picked up. With uncertainty about US trade policy still high, the outlook for the Canadian economy remains clouded.

Sovereign borrowing is rising, just as central banks are stepping back. Meanwhile, commercial bank holdings of sovereign bonds remain well below pre-global financial crisis levels. This leaves foreign investors and investment funds, often hedge funds, to absorb more of this growing supply. Their greater involvement supports liquidity and robust auction results, but it can also concentrate risk.

Given the unprecedented shift in the direction of US trade policy, there is considerable uncertainty about how tariffs could impact the economy. The degree to which prices will rise and economic activity will weaken is unclear.