Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Financial Shocks and the Output Growth Distribution Staff working paper 2025-25 Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper studies how financial shocks shape the distribution of output growth by introducing a quantile-augmented vector autoregression (QAVAR), which integrates quantile regressions into a structural VAR framework. The QAVAR preserves standard shock identification while delivering flexible, nonparametric forecasts of conditional moments and tail risk measures for gross domestic product. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios Staff analytical note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
January 19, 2026 Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations 10:30 (ET) The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures Staff analytical note 2019-26 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maxime Leboeuf Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
April 20, 2026 Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations 11:30 (ET) The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
October 19, 2026 Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations 11:30 (ET) The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
July 6, 2026 Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations 11:30 (ET) The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
September 15, 2008 Adjusting to the Commodity-Price Boom: The Experiences of Four Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Michael Francis Between 2002 and 2008, global commodity prices rose to unprecedented levels. This article examines the process of adjustment to the commodity boom in four industrialized, commodity-exporting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway). The article focuses on both the direct adjustment within the commodity-producing sectors (via increased employment and capital spending) and the indirect adjustment in the macro economy. The analysis finds that the indirect adjustment process, which was triggered by the increase in incomes that the commodity-price boom generated, has been the most important part of the adjustment in all four economies. Through this channel, aggregate demand rose, exchange rates appreciated, and adjustment was facilitated in other sectors, such as manufacturing and construction. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles