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411 Results

MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models

Staff working paper 2026-7 Gabriel Rodriguez Rondon, Jean-Marie Dufour
We present the R package MSTest, which implements hypothesis testing procedures to determine the number of regimes in Markov switching models. The package provides several testing frameworks, including Monte Carlo likelihood ratio tests, moment-based tests, parameter stability tests, and classical likelihood ratio procedures.

Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports

Staff working paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress
This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.

Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes

Staff working paper 2023-40 Bruno Feunou
We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does.

Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion

Staff working paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi
This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate.

Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence

Staff working paper 2023-25 John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang, Huan Xie
We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price.
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