Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1290
result(s)
The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting
Staff Working Paper 2003-32
Frédérick Demers
Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
E,
E3,
E31
A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?
Staff Working Paper 2003-31
Nicholas Rowe,
David Tulk
The authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements its inflation-targeting monetary policy. They focus on measuring the correlation between the deviations of inflation from the target and the lagged deviations of rule recommendations from the actual policy interest rate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5
Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?
Staff Working Paper 2003-30
Lise Pichette,
Dominique Tremblay
The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E2,
E21
Nominal Rigidities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Structural Model of a Small Open Economy
Staff Working Paper 2003-29
Steve Ambler,
Ali Dib,
Nooman Rebei
The authors analyze exchange rate pass-through in an estimated structural model of a small open economy that incorporates three types of nominal rigidity (wages and the prices of domestically produced and imported goods) and eight different structural shocks. The model is estimated using quarterly data from Canada and the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Exchange rates,
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F3,
F31,
F33
An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds
Staff Working Paper 2003-28
Chris D'Souza,
Charles Gaa,
Jing Yang
The authors empirically measure Canadian bond market liquidity using a number of indicators proposed in the literature and detail, for the first time, price and trade dynamics in the Government of Canada secondary bond market. They find, consistent with Inoue (1999), that the Canadian brokered interdealer fixed-income market is relatively liquid for its size.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G14
Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies
Staff Working Paper 2003-27
Ali Dib
The author develops and estimates a quantitative dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy (SOE) with domestic and import price stickiness and capital-adjustment costs. A monetary policy rule allows the central bank to systematically manage the short-term nominal interest rate in response to deviations of inflation, output, and money growth from their steadystate levels.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Exchange rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
F,
F2,
F3
Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2003-26
Grahame Johnson
Financial market expectations regarding future policy actions by the Bank of Canada are an important input into the Bank's decision-making process, and they can be measured using a variety of sources. The author develops a simple expectations-based model to focus on measuring interest rate expectations that are implied by the current level of money market yields.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1
Income Trusts - Understanding the Issues
Staff Working Paper 2003-25
Michael R. King
An income trust is an investment vehicle that distributes cash generated by a set of operating assets in a tax-efficient manner. The market capitalization of income trusts has grown rapidly over the past two years, reaching $45 billion at year-end 2002.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G3
Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices
Staff Working Paper 2003-24
René Lalonde,
Zhenhua Zhu,
Frédérick Demers
The authors develop simple econometric models to analyze and forecast two components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index: the Bank of Canada non-energy (BCNE) commodity prices and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price. They present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5