Structural challenges

The world is constantly changing. Factors like trade conflicts, technological advances and climate change can challenge the very foundations of the economy. We study these developments to keep our economy strong and resilient.

In an increasingly interconnected and dynamic global economy, Canada faces various structural challenges that require careful analysis. These challenges are influenced not only by external factors such as geopolitics, global trade dynamics and technological advancements but also by internal factors, including demographic shifts and environmental sustainability. Understanding and addressing these structural challenges is crucial for keeping inflation low and stable, fostering growth and ensuring the economic well-being of Canadians.

Among the issues we are studying:

  • the structural factors behind Canada’s slow growth in productivity
  • how immigration and population aging impact inflation through wages, productivity and housing demand
  • how artificial intelligence will transform the demand for skills and affect productivity
  • how tariffs impact the economy and inflation in Canada
  • the impact to Canada if the US dollar ceases to be the global currency used for trade and finance

Productivity

Productivity growth is a main factor behind economic prosperity. Yet, Canada has seen slow growth in productivity for a long time. Understanding both the underlying factors behind productivity and its likely evolution are important for identifying inflationary pressures.

The four Ds: deglobalization, demographic shifts, digitalization and decarbonization

The four Ds are reshaping the Canadian economy. They may lead to more persistent pressures on inflation and cause inflation to be more volatile. For these reasons and more, examining these four structural trends is important.

  • Deglobalization is led by shifts in trade alliances and the rearranging of supply chains. It affects how Canada interacts with the global economy.
  • Demographic shifts, including population aging and immigration, influence the labour market and the demand for housing.
  • Digitalization affects productivity and the demand for skills, particularly as businesses use artificial intelligence tools more widely.
  • Decarbonization is essential to become environmentally sustainable but creates opportunities and challenges for economic growth.

The international monetary and financial system

The international monetary and financial system is the set of rules, institutions and mechanisms that govern exchange rates, cross-border flows of capital and the use of international currencies to facilitate the exchange of goods and services between countries. This system is facing heightened uncertainty and potential structural change. Geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade policies and the evolving role of the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency are key factors influencing the system. Understanding the implications of these changes for Canada is critical.

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The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

Staff discussion paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz
In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously.

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff analytical note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN

Staff discussion paper 2016-19 Malik Shukayev, Argyn Toktamyssov
BIS interbank lending data show that the Great Recession generated large and persistent changes in the international interbank lending positions of various countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the role of changes in international interbank credit flows in transmitting shocks across borders.

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data

Staff working paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui
We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID).

The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies

This paper analyzes the implications of the global financial cycle for conventional and unconventional monetary policies and macroprudential policy in small, open economies such as Canada. The paper starts by summarizing recent work on financial cycles and their growing correlation across borders.
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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. The research is non-partisan and evidence based. All research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each paper or article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.

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