Structural challenges

The world is constantly changing. Factors like trade conflicts, technological advances and climate change can challenge the very foundations of the economy. We study these developments to keep our economy strong and resilient.

In an increasingly interconnected and dynamic global economy, Canada faces various structural challenges that require careful analysis. These challenges are influenced not only by external factors such as geopolitics, global trade dynamics and technological advancements but also by internal factors, including demographic shifts and environmental sustainability. Understanding and addressing these structural challenges is crucial for keeping inflation low and stable, fostering growth and ensuring the economic well-being of Canadians.

Among the issues we are studying:

  • the structural factors behind Canada’s slow growth in productivity
  • how immigration and population aging impact inflation through wages, productivity and housing demand
  • how artificial intelligence will transform the demand for skills and affect productivity
  • how tariffs impact the economy and inflation in Canada
  • the impact to Canada if the US dollar ceases to be the global currency used for trade and finance

Productivity

Productivity growth is a main factor behind economic prosperity. Yet, Canada has seen slow growth in productivity for a long time. Understanding both the underlying factors behind productivity and its likely evolution are important for identifying inflationary pressures.

The four Ds: deglobalization, demographic shifts, digitalization and decarbonization

The four Ds are reshaping the Canadian economy. They may lead to more persistent pressures on inflation and cause inflation to be more volatile. For these reasons and more, examining these four structural trends is important.

  • Deglobalization is led by shifts in trade alliances and the rearranging of supply chains. It affects how Canada interacts with the global economy.
  • Demographic shifts, including population aging and immigration, influence the labour market and the demand for housing.
  • Digitalization affects productivity and the demand for skills, particularly as businesses use artificial intelligence tools more widely.
  • Decarbonization is essential to become environmentally sustainable but creates opportunities and challenges for economic growth.

The international monetary and financial system

The international monetary and financial system is the set of rules, institutions and mechanisms that govern exchange rates, cross-border flows of capital and the use of international currencies to facilitate the exchange of goods and services between countries. This system is facing heightened uncertainty and potential structural change. Geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade policies and the evolving role of the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency are key factors influencing the system. Understanding the implications of these changes for Canada is critical.

Related research

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Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown?

Staff analytical note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stéphanie Houle
Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox.

Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data

Are summers getting hotter? Do daily temperatures change more than they used to? Using daily Canadian temperature data from 1960 to 2020 and modern econometric methods, we provide economists and policy-makers evidence on the important climate change issue of evolving temperatures.

Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics Across Workers and Firms

We use four decades of Canadian matched employer-employee data to explore how inequality and the dynamics of individual earnings have evolved over time in Canada. We also examine how the earnings growth of individuals is related to the growth of their employers.

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

Adoption of Digital Technologies: Insights from a Global Survey Initiative

Staff discussion paper 2021-7 James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek, Lise Pichette
Firms are at the forefront of adopting new technology. Using survey data from a global network of central banks, we assess the effects of digitalization on firms’ pricing and employment decisions.
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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. The research is non-partisan and evidence based. All research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each paper or article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.

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