August 22, 2003
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172
result(s)
August 21, 2003
Dollarization in Canada: An Update
The authors describe a special survey of the payment and financial-reporting practices of Canadian firms conducted by the Bank of Canada's regional offices to determine if the U.S. dollar has started to displace the Canadian dollar as a preferred unit of account. A cross-section of firms was asked what currency (or currencies) they used: (i) for quoting sales to Canadian customers, (ii) for quoting prices to foreigners, (iii) for reporting their financial results, and (iv) for quoting salaries and wages. The survey results reported here extend some earlier results reported in a previous Review article by Murray and Powell. The data indicate that, despite the dominance of the U.S. dollar in world trade and as an international standard of value, use of the U.S. dollar in Canada is very limited. The vast majority of Canadian firms price their products and keep their financial statements in Canadian dollars, and very few workers in Canada have their salaries paid in a foreign currency. The Canadian dollar is still strongly preferred for most pricing and financial-reporting activities in Canada, and there is very little evidence of "dollarization."
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes
Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain
Staff Working Paper 2003-3
René Lalonde,
Patrick Sabourin
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Exchange rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E17,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F47
December 21, 2002
Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets
A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Exchange rate regimes
November 21, 2002
Is Canada Dollarized?
The sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the successful launch of the euro have sparked a lively debate in Canada about the possible benefits of formally adopting the U.S. dollar as our national currency. Some observers have suggested that this debate is largely irrelevant, since Canada is already highly "dollarized." Canadian businesses and households, they assert, often use the U.S. dollar to perform standard money functions in preference to their own currency. Very little evidence has been provided, however, to support these claims. The authors review the available data with a view to drawing some tentative conclusions about the extent to which Canada has already been informally dollarized. The evidence suggests that many of the concerns that have been expressed about the imminent demise of the Canadian dollar have been misplaced. The Canadian dollar continues to be used as the principal unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value within our borders. Moreover, there is no indication that dollarization is likely to take hold in the foreseeable future. Indeed, in many respects, the Canadian economy is less dollarized now than it was 20 years ago.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes
November 19, 2002
Purchasing-Power Parity: Definition, Measurement, and Interpretation
This article examines the concept of purchasing-power parity (PPP) and its implications for the equilibrium value of the Canadian exchange rate. PPP has two main applications, as a theory of exchange rate determination and as a means to compare living standards across countries. Concerning exchange rate determination, PPP is mainly useful as a reminder that monetary policy has no long-run impact on the real exchange rate, since the exchange rate can deviate persistently from its PPP value in response to real shocks. To compare living standards across countries, PPP exchange rates constructed by comparing the prices of national consumption baskets are used to translate per capita national incomes into a common currency. These rates are useful because they offset differences in national price levels to obtain comparable measures of purchasing power, but they are not an accurate measure of the equilibrium value of the exchange rate. The authors conclude that the current deviation of the Canadian exchange rate from the PPP rate does not imply that the exchange rate is undervalued, but that this deviation reflects the impact of persistent real factors, in particular, lower commodity prices.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
The Impact of Common Currencies on Financial Markets: A Literature Review and Evidence from the Euro Area
Staff Working Paper 2002-35
Liliane Karlinger
This paper reviews both the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of common currencies on financial markets and evaluates the first three years of experience with Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
F,
F2,
F21,
F3,
F36,
G,
G1,
G15
Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence
Staff Working Paper 2002-31
Céline Gauthier,
David Tessier
In this paper, we study the impact of supply shocks on the Canadian real exchange rate. We specify a structural vector-error-correction model that links the real exchange rate to different fundamentals.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
F,
F3,
F31
Nominal Rigidity, Desired Markup Variations, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence
Staff Working Paper 2002-26
Hafedh Bouakez
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price model that accounts for real exchange rate persistence.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41
Dollarization in Canada: The Buck Stops There
Technical Report No. 90
John Murray,
James Powell
The sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the successful launch of the euro have spawned an animated debate in Canada concerning the potential benefits of formally adopting the U.S. dollar as our national currency.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
F,
F3,
F33,
F36