Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Survey Data

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.

Chart 1: Household income and spending expectations

* Household income refers to total income from all sources before taxes and deductions.
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)?
Expected income growth, next 12 months1.982.012.012.082.09
Expected spending growth, next 12 months2.492.844.564.073.74

Chart 2: House price growth expectations

Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions.Last observation:

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)?
Atlantic3.554.764.926.265.04
Quebec4.345.205.298.605.41
Ontario5.135.696.276.965.62
Manitoba4.533.614.365.294.30
Saskatchewan1.922.622.184.594.40
Alberta0.611.282.504.824.32
British Columbia4.274.765.936.486.05
Canada4.674.985.325.735.30

Chart 3: Inflation expectations

Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months?
1-year-ahead inflation expectations2.222.862.103.073.72
2-year-ahead inflation expectations2.953.002.993.003.06
5-year-ahead inflation expectations3.553.123.733.113.09
Perceptions about current inflation2.032.022.012.213.01

Chart 4: Inflation expectations: uncertainty

Note: This chart presents a measure of median uncertainty based on the interquartile range of respondents’ forecasting outcomes for different time frames. Survey questions are presented in the Overview. Last observation:

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 (24) months, the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...)
Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations2.291.962.112.062.06
Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations2.241.952.172.002.05

Chart 5: Labour turnover

Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept?
Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale)15.2715.1215.4911.9512.24
Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale)10.9610.5515.4515.5119.15
Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale)48.0446.5945.6548.4649.17

Chart 6: Wage growth expectations

* Earnings refers to earnings in the same job, for the same hours worked, before taxes and deductions.
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months?
1-year-ahead inflation expectations2.222.862.103.073.72
Expected wage growth, next 12 months1.891.971.942.032.00
Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months1.051.061.021.731.22

Chart 7: Interest rate expectations

Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions.

Series2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3
At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now?
1 year ahead3.022.962.983.063.11
2 years ahead3.993.503.574.004.02
5 years ahead4.914.954.915.005.04