View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
Chart 1: Household income and spending expectations
* Household income refers to total income from all sources before taxes and deductions.
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Expected income growth, next 12 months | 2.82 | 2.50 | 3.17 | 2.87 | 2.86 |
| Expected spending growth, next 12 months | 4.86 | 4.91 | 5.05 | 4.82 | 4.61 |
Chart 2: House price growth expectations
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions.Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Atlantic | 1.94 | 2.70 | 3.94 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Quebec | 2.75 | 2.00 | 2.55 | 4.03 | 4.83 |
| Ontario | 0.70 | 0.64 | 2.24 | 4.63 | 4.92 |
| Manitoba | 2.84 | 1.14 | 2.23 | 3.33 | 2.81 |
| Saskatchewan | 2.55 | 1.74 | 2.06 | 3.59 | 4.40 |
| Alberta | 1.81 | 1.80 | 2.36 | 4.06 | 4.92 |
| British Columbia | 1.59 | 0.10 | 2.22 | 4.56 | 5.03 |
| Canada | 1.80 | 1.45 | 2.33 | 4.34 | 4.88 |
Chart 3: Inflation expectations
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 7.11 | 7.18 | 6.03 | 5.09 | 5.03 |
| 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 5.22 | 5.14 | 4.27 | 3.93 | 4.04 |
| 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.44 | 3.10 | 2.92 | 2.89 | 2.75 |
| Perceptions about current inflation | 7.96 | 7.94 | 7.12 | 7.02 | 6.60 |
Chart 4: Inflation expectations: uncertainty
Note: This chart presents a measure of median uncertainty based on the interquartile range of respondents’ forecasting outcomes for different time frames. Survey questions are presented in the Overview. Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months (in 12 to 24 months / five years), the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...) | |||||
| Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.57 | 2.42 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.17 |
| Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.38 | 2.16 | 2.22 | 2.05 | 1.93 |
| Uncertainty, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.17 | 1.78 | 2.13 | 2.52 | 1.76 |
Chart 5: Labour turnover
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept? | |||||
| Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale) | 14.62 | 13.93 | 10.93 | 10.27 | 10.61 |
| Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale) | 25.48 | 19.62 | 19.46 | 19.62 | 20.06 |
| Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale) | 50.59 | 50.35 | 50.56 | 50.05 | 49.72 |
Chart 6: Wage growth expectations
* Earnings refers to earnings in the same job, for the same hours worked, before taxes and deductions.
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 7.11 | 7.18 | 6.03 | 5.09 | 5.03 |
| Expected wage growth, next 12 months | 2.61 | 2.48 | 2.62 | 2.57 | 2.72 |
| Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months | 2.05 | 1.93 | 2.16 | 2.15 | 2.22 |
Chart 7: Interest rate expectations
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions.
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now? | |||||
| 1 year ahead | 5.13 | 5.93 | 5.99 | 5.21 | 5.96 |
| 2 years ahead | 5.94 | 5.99 | 5.19 | 5.04 | 5.87 |
| 5 years ahead | 5.18 | 5.39 | 4.97 | 4.92 | 5.04 |