View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
Chart 1: Household income and spending expectations
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Expected income growth, next 12 months | 2.23 | 2.19 | 2.16 | 2.49 | 2.39 |
| Expected spending growth, next 12 months | 4.58 | 4.05 | 3.62 | 3.86 | 3.91 |
Note: Data for the series for household spending and income growth expectations have been revised from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the present. Roughly 9% of observations for expected household spending growth and roughly 12% of observations for expected household income growth were previously incorrectly classified as a “non-response” and are now classified as “0%.” For expected household spending growth and income growth, the new interpolated median results with these revisions are lower by, on average, 0.62 and 0.35 percentage points per quarter, respectively, over the full survey history. The changes do not affect key messages in previous CSCE publications.
Chart 2: House price growth expectations
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Atlantic | 4.40 | 5.20 | 5.02 | 7.15 | 4.76 |
| Quebec | 4.03 | 4.83 | 4.60 | 4.74 | 5.57 |
| Ontario | 4.63 | 4.92 | 4.14 | 4.74 | 5.02 |
| Manitoba | 3.33 | 2.81 | 4.25 | 6.72 | 4.09 |
| Saskatchewan | 3.59 | 4.40 | 5.71 | 4.02 | 4.64 |
| Alberta | 4.06 | 4.92 | 4.12 | 5.35 | 5.47 |
| British Columbia | 4.56 | 5.03 | 4.15 | 4.21 | 4.90 |
| Canada | 4.34 | 4.88 | 4.38 | 4.84 | 5.11 |
Chart 3: Inflation expectations
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 5.09 | 5.03 | 4.91 | 4.92 | 4.09 |
| 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.93 | 4.04 | 3.94 | 3.76 | 3.91 |
| 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.89 | 2.75 | 2.62 | 3.12 | 3.20 |
| Perceptions about current inflation | 7.02 | 6.60 | 5.90 | 5.25 | 5.24 |
Chart 4: Inflation expectations: uncertainty
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months (in 12 to 24 months / five years), the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...) | |||||
| Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.52 | 2.17 | 2.06 | 2.02 | 2.20 |
| Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.05 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.96 | 2.04 |
| Uncertainty, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.52 | 1.76 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.92 |
Chart 5: Labour turnover
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept? | |||||
| Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale) | 10.27 | 10.61 | 10.87 | 10.80 | 14.55 |
| Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale) | 19.62 | 20.06 | 15.87 | 19.26 | 20.35 |
| Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale) | 50.05 | 49.72 | 49.13 | 49.44 | 49.04 |
Chart 6: Wage growth expectations
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 5.09 | 5.03 | 4.91 | 4.92 | 4.09 |
| Expected wage growth, next 12 months | 2.57 | 2.72 | 2.73 | 2.76 | 2.80 |
| Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.26 | 2.31 | 2.38 |
Chart 7: Interest rate expectations
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now? | |||||
| 1 year ahead | 5.21 | 5.96 | 5.93 | 5.14 | 5.16 |
| 2 years ahead | 5.04 | 5.87 | 5.95 | 5.09 | 5.24 |
| 5 years ahead | 4.92 | 5.04 | 5.17 | 4.88 | 4.98 |
Chart 8: Components of inflation
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items? | |||||
| Gasoline | 5.58 | 5.94 | 5.44 | 5.06 | 5.72 |
| Food | 6.55 | 7.14 | 5.78 | 5.24 | 5.71 |
| Cars | 5.64 | 7.04 | 6.47 | 5.59 | 5.71 |
| Rent | 9.19 | 9.51 | 9.29 | 7.94 | 8.79 |
| Entertainment | 9.38 | 9.22 | 8.78 | 9.11 | |
| Meals at restaurants | 9.59 | 9.36 | 9.20 | 9.22 | |
Chart 9: Economic outlook
| Series | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents) | |||||
| Significant decline | 16.04 | 21.47 | 22.77 | 17.15 | 19.97 |
| Small decline | 34.35 | 34.02 | 38.60 | 34.68 | 31.19 |
| No change | 33.18 | 30.48 | 27.99 | 33.79 | 33.09 |
| Some growth | 15.16 | 13.33 | 9.62 | 13.06 | 14.21 |
| Strong growth | 1.26 | 0.70 | 1.02 | 1.32 | 1.54 |