The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
Chart 1: Household income and spending expectations
* Household income refers to total income from all sources before taxes and deductions.
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Expected income growth, next 12 months | 2.08 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.09 | 2.14 |
| Expected spending growth, next 12 months | 4.07 | 3.74 | 4.74 | 4.87 | 4.88 |
Chart 2: House price growth expectations
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions.Last observation:
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Atlantic | 6.26 | 5.04 | 5.70 | 8.73 | 7.37 |
| Quebec | 8.60 | 5.41 | 5.38 | 6.04 | 7.09 |
| Ontario | 6.96 | 5.62 | 8.75 | 9.00 | 7.73 |
| Manitoba | 5.29 | 4.30 | 3.07 | 6.25 | 5.39 |
| Saskatchewan | 4.59 | 4.40 | 4.77 | 4.41 | 4.20 |
| Alberta | 4.82 | 4.32 | 4.73 | 5.12 | 5.15 |
| British Columbia | 6.48 | 6.05 | 5.82 | 8.93 | 7.12 |
| Canada | 5.73 | 5.30 | 5.73 | 7.12 | 6.00 |
Chart 3: Inflation expectations
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.07 | 3.72 | 4.89 | 5.07 | 6.82 |
| 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.00 | 3.06 | 4.12 | 4.62 | 5.02 |
| 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.11 | 3.09 | 3.50 | 3.23 | 4.00 |
| Perceptions about current inflation | 2.21 | 3.01 | 4.10 | 5.03 | 6.06 |
Chart 4: Inflation expectations: uncertainty
Note: This chart presents a measure of median uncertainty based on the interquartile range of respondents’ forecasting outcomes for different time frames. Survey questions are presented in the Overview. Last observation:
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months (in 12 to 24 months / five years), the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...) | |||||
| Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.06 | 2.06 | 2.29 | 2.60 | 2.42 |
| Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.34 | 2.25 |
| Uncertainty, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.20 | 2.22 | 2.01 | 2.15 | 1.93 |
Chart 5: Labour turnover
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept? | |||||
| Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale) | 11.95 | 12.24 | 13.41 | 15.17 | 11.38 |
| Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale) | 15.51 | 19.15 | 19.30 | 21.95 | 20.47 |
| Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale) | 48.46 | 49.17 | 49.69 | 50.22 | 50.18 |
Chart 6: Wage growth expectations
* Earnings refers to earnings in the same job, for the same hours worked, before taxes and deductions.
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics.Last observation:
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.07 | 3.72 | 4.89 | 5.07 | 6.82 |
| Expected wage growth, next 12 months | 2.03 | 2.00 | 2.04 | 2.17 | 2.29 |
| Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months | 1.73 | 1.22 | 1.89 | 1.94 | 2.00 |
Chart 7: Interest rate expectations
Note: This chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions.
| Series | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now? | |||||
| 1 year ahead | 3.06 | 3.11 | 3.91 | 3.97 | 4.80 |
| 2 years ahead | 4.00 | 4.02 | 4.10 | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| 5 years ahead | 5.00 | 5.04 | 5.01 | 5.76 | 5.56 |