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Freer trade lowers prices and boosts economies, yet not everyone benefits equally. Fair policies are essential for balanced growth and widespread prosperity.

The economy starts with you.

Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2018 - For the period ended 30 June 2018

Real GDP in Canada is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018, 2.2 per cent in 2019 and 1.9 per cent in 2020.

Supported by expectations of sustained demand, responses to the summer Business Outlook Survey point to continued business optimism, particularly outside the energy-producing regions. In this context, firms reported increasing pressures on capacity and prices.

Survey results for the second quarter of 2018 suggest that overall lending conditions eased somewhat, both for households and business, driven by competition for mortgage and corporate lending.

This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that high household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities remain elevated, policy measures continue to improve the resilience of the financial system. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats to an interconnected financial system.

This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey.

The author traces developments in the Canadian covered bond market. Covered bonds could be a valuable way to provide a stable and diverse source of funding, particularly for smaller banks. However, higher issuance could increase banks’ vulnerability to liquidity stress, with implications for the broader financial system. The author argues that these benefits and challenges can be balanced in a well-designed policy framework.

This report highlights how an effective resolution regime promotes financial stability. It does this by ensuring that financial market infrastructures (FMIs) would be able to continue to provide their critical functions during a period of stress when an FMI’s own recovery measures were failing. The report explains the Bank of Canada’s new role as the resolution authority for FMIs, which will further bolster financial system resilience.