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Business confidence has softened, according to results from the third-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey and the July through October 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys. Many firms expect slower sales growth as interest rates rise and demand growth shifts closer to pre-pandemic levels. Early signs suggest that pressures on prices and wages have started to ease, but firms’ inflation expectations remain high.

This survey took place between August 2 and August 23, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in September. Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have continued to rise because consumers anticipate supply chain disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist. In contrast, expectations for inflation five years ahead have eased to near pre-pandemic levels. Still, consumers are more divided this quarter about where inflation will end up in the long term.

Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2022 - For the period ended June 30, 2022

The Canadian economy is now clearly in excess demand, and inflation is high and broadening. The Bank is projecting inflation to decline to about 3% by the end of 2023, and to return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

Differences in income, wealth and debt across households are important—for the economy, for the health of the financial system and for monetary policy.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2022, along with those from the April, May and June 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge.

This survey took place between April 28 and May 13, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in June. Consumers’ expectations for inflation have risen, alongside concerns about prices for food, gas and rent. Short-term expectations are at record-high levels. Long-term inflation expectations increased significantly in the second quarter of 2022, returning to the levels they were at before the COVID-19 pandemic. Most people believe the Bank of Canada can achieve its inflation target. However, some think the process of bringing inflation down will be difficult for the Bank of Canada. Expectations for higher inflation and rising interest rates weigh on consumer confidence. People expect that credit conditions will worsen and wage growth will not keep up with inflation. Flexible work arrangements could attract more people into the labour force.

The Canadian financial system remains resilient, but vulnerabilities have become more complex and risks have grown. The Bank is carefully watching households’ high levels of mortgage debt, as well as the risks associated with a price correction in Canada’s housing market.

This article presents the key results from the spring 2022 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 22 and March 18. The survey included a special section on the potential risks associated with the global normalization of monetary policy.

Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2022 - For the period ended March 31, 2022