As of the first quarter of 2023, Chart 2-A: Past sales declines will replace Chart 2-B: Past sales growth. See Backgrounder on removing the past sales growth question from the Business Outlook Survey for details.
Business Outlook Survey indicator
Chart 1: Business Outlook Survey indicator
Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The BOS indicator is re-estimated every quarter with the release of the Business Outlook Survey. As such, even though responses to BOS questions are never revised, the entire time series of the indicator is revised after every release. | |||||
| BOS Indicator | 1.80 | 0.20 | -0.97 | -2.31 | -3.51 |
Business activity
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past Sales Declines | |||||
| Did the overall level of your sales volume decline over the past 12 months, compared with the previous 12 months? | |||||
| Yes (%) | 18.00 | 23.00 | 16.00 | 23.00 | 32.00 |
Chart 2-B: Past sales growth
* Percentage of firms reporting faster growth minus the percentage reporting slower growth
Note: This question has been removed from the Business Outlook Survey as of the first quarter of 2023 survey.Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past Sales Growth | |||||
| Over the past 12 months, the rate of increase in your firm’s sales volume (compared with the previous 12 months) was… | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | 42 | 48 | 21 | 2 | - |
| Greater (%) | 64 | 68 | 50 | 41 | - |
| Less (%) | 23 | 21 | 29 | 39 | - |
Chart 3: Future sales growth
* Percentage of firms expecting faster growth minus the percentage expecting slower growth
† Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deterioratedLast observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Future Sales Growth | |||||
| Over the next 12 months, the rate of increase in your firm’s sales volume (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be… | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | -18 | -24 | -18 | -6 | 14 |
| Greater (%) | 28 | 28 | 30 | 35 | 42 |
| Less (%) | 46 | 51 | 48 | 41 | 28 |
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicators of Future Sales | |||||
| Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators (order books, advanced bookings, sales inquiries, etc.)… | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | 18 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 0 |
| Deteriorated (%) | 31 | 33 | 32 | 36 | 37 |
| Improved (%) | 48 | 44 | 42 | 44 | 37 |
Chart 4: Investment in machinery and equipment
* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment minus the percentage expecting lower investmentLast observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment in Machinery and Equipment | |||||
| Over the next 12 months, your firm’s investment spending on M&E (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be… | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | 29 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 7 |
| Higher (%) | 50 | 46 | 40 | 40 | 38 |
| Lower (%) | 21 | 26 | 21 | 26 | 31 |
Chart 5: Credit conditions
* Percentage of firms reporting tightened terms and conditions minus the percentage reporting eased. For this question, the balance of opinion excludes firms that responded “not applicable.” Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Conditions | |||||
| Over the past 3 months, how have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed (compared with the previous 3 months)? | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | 12 | 27 | 10 | 30 | 26 |
| Eased (%) | 11 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 4 |
| Tightened (%) | 23 | 30 | 26 | 40 | 31 |
Chart 6: Future employment level
* Percentage of firms expecting higher levels of employment minus the percentage expecting lower levels Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Future Employment Level | |||||
| Over the next 12 months, your firm’s level of employment is expected to be… | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | 47 | 35 | 45 | 34 | 27 |
| Higher (%) | 54 | 46 | 54 | 48 | 39 |
| Lower (%) | 7 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 12 |
Pressures on production capacity
Chart 7: Ability to meet demand
Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ability to Meet Demand | |||||
| How would you rate the current ability of your firm to meet an unexpected increase in demand? | |||||
| Significant difficulty (% of firms) | 28 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| Some difficulty (% of firms) | 48 | 51 | 51 | 36 | 39 |
Chart 8: Labour shortages
* Percentage of firms reporting more-intense labour shortages minus the percentage reporting less-intense shortagesLast observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Shortages | |||||
| Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? | |||||
| Yes (% of firms) | 46 | 38 | 31 | 30 | 32 |
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intensity of Labour Shortages | |||||
| Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally… | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | 44 | 25 | -30 | -23 | -46 |
| Less intense | 15 | 22 | 47 | 42 | 53 |
| More intense | 59 | 47 | 18 | 19 | 8 |
Wages, prices and inflation
Chart 9: Wage growth
* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage Growth | |||||
| Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? | |||||
| Higher | 57 | 54 | 47 | 27 | 9 |
| Lower | 19 | 24 | 25 | 46 | 59 |
| Balance of opinion * | 38 | 31 | 22 | -19 | -50 |
Chart 10: Input price inflation
* Percentage of firms expecting greater price increases minus the percentage expecting lesser price increases Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Input Price Inflation | |||||
| Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | -39 | -39 | -49 | -53 | -63 |
| Increase at a greater rate (%) | 20 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 9 |
| Increase at a lesser rate (%) | 59 | 59 | 66 | 68 | 72 |
Chart 11: Output price inflation
* Percentage of firms expecting greater price increases minus the percentage expecting lesser price increasesLast observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output Price Inflation | |||||
| Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? | |||||
| Balance of Opinion | -24 | -10 | -26 | -33 | -43 |
| Increase at a greater rate (%) | 23 | 34 | 25 | 19 | 14 |
| Increase at a lesser rate (%) | 47 | 44 | 51 | 52 | 56 |
Chart 12: Inflation expectations
Last observation:
| Series | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Expectations | |||||
| Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? | |||||
| Above 3 per cent (% of firms) | 77 | 84 | 79 | 64 | 53 |
| Below 1 per cent (% of firms) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| No response (% of firms) | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 1 to 2 per cent (% of firms) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 to 3 per cent (% of firms) | 13 | 16 | 17 | 30 | 39 |
Notes
For more information, see these references on the Business Outlook Survey.
Since the responses to the questions are calculated as percentages, when the sample is not exactly 100 firms, or respondents do not answer all questions, the results are rounded. Therefore, in some cases, calculating a balance of opinion using the greater and lesser categories may differ slightly from the actual balance of opinion. Also, totals may not always add to 100%.
In 1999Q2 and 2000Q2, the survey questions were asked to industry associations instead of businesses (74 associations in 1999Q2 and 66 associations in 2000Q2). See Martin and Papile (2004). In addition, the summer 2006 results for the labour shortages question presented on Chart 8 are not strictly comparable with those of other surveys, owing to a difference in the interview process for that survey.
In 2022Q4, the survey results for the core charts were recalculated over their history to account for two main changes. To better reflect results of informed responses, we have removed responses coded as “no response” (e.g., firms either responded that the question was not applicable, or they didn’t answer). Previous calculations would have treated firms without a response as reporting “no change”. Also, we have corrected some technical errors from early in the data history. In both cases, the changes are mostly negligible. The changes are reflected in all HTML pages in the past and going forward (past PDFs will not be adjusted).
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