Posts

• July 6, 2026

  Backgrounder on new summary indicators for the Business Outlook Survey

  The Business Outlook Survey is introducing two new summary indicators—one measuring firms’ outlooks for business activity and another measuring their outlooks for price growth. This backgrounder explains how the indicators are constructed, why they were developed and how they relate to macroeconomic series of interest.

  Content Type(s): Background materials
• July 6, 2026

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2026

  Results of the second-quarter 2026 survey show that consumers’ near-term inflation expectations remain elevated amid ongoing trade tensions and rising concerns about oil and energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East. The CSCE indicator remains low as consumers still view the economic environment as challenging. High prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household spending plans, particularly among households expecting the war to significantly raise inflation. At the same time, perceptions of the labour market improved modestly as fears of job loss eased, particularly in sectors highly sensitive to trade.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

• Assessing risks to oil prices through options markets

  

  Sparks at Bank article Harshbir Kaur, Eugene Trostin, Rishi Vala

  After the war in the Middle East began, futures markets hinted at how long oil prices could stay above their pre-war levels. Options on those futures further reveal how investors see the range and balance of risks around future oil prices—which helps central banks assess risks to inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
• July 2, 2026

  Updates to Government of Canada Cash Management Bond Buyback Program

  The Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance are announcing today that the maximum repurchase amount for Government of Canada Cash Management Bond Buyback (CMBB) operations will no longer be fixed at $2 billion per operation and instead be determined by available excess cash at the time of the operation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices

• Monte Carlo Likelihood-Ratio Tests for Markov Switching Models

  Staff working paper 2026-23 Gabriel Rodriguez Rondon, Jean-Marie Dufour

  This paper develops Monte Carlo likelihood-ratio tests for determining the number of regimes in Markov switching models. Unlike most existing procedures, which focus on testing one versus two regimes, the proposed methods allow testing an arbitrary number of regimes. They are valid in finite samples, robust to identification problems, and applicable to nonstationary, multivariate, and Markov switching GARCH models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, C4, C46, C5, C52, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting

• Supply and Demand-Driven inflation: Decomposition and policy implications

  Staff analytical paper 2026-33 Kira Kang, Rodrigo Sekkel, Temel Taskin, Jing Yang

  This note uses detailed expenditure data to decompose Canadian inflation into supply- and demand-driven components. The analysis sheds light on the drivers of post-pandemic inflation and shows that monetary policy primarily affects and responds to demand-driven inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• The Boundaries of Bank Funding: The Case of Canadian Cash ETFs

  Staff analytical paper 2026-32 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Vincent Meh, Jayden Plener

  The rise and transformation of Canadian cash ETFs highlight that banking liquidity regulation affects more than bank resilience. By changing the relative attractiveness of deposits and securities, it can shape where asset managers allocate their cash across the financial system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
• July 1, 2026

  Panel: Tiff Macklem, Governor

  Sintra, Portugal
  ECB Forum on Central Banking

  Content Type(s): Upcoming events
• July 1, 2026

  Canada Day

  National holiday

  Content Type(s): Upcoming events
• July 1, 2026

  Panel with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories