Credit and credit aggregates, Lender of last resort, Monetary and financial indicators, Financial institutions, Financial markets, International financial markets, Monetary policy implementation, Financial system regulation and policies, Financial services, Financial stability, , Payment clearing and settlement systems
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Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle
This paper examines the predictive power of credit spreads from the corporate bond market. The high-yield bond spread and investment-grade spread can explain 68 per cent and 42 per cent of output variations one year ahead, while the term spread based on government debts can explain only 12 per cent of them.