Credit and credit aggregates, Lender of last resort, Monetary and financial indicators, Financial institutions, Financial markets, International financial markets, Monetary policy implementation, Financial system regulation and policies, Financial services, Financial stability, , Payment clearing and settlement systems

• December 9, 1994

  The term structure of interest rates as a leading indicator of economic activity: A technical note

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1994-1995 Kevin Clinton

  The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates has proven to be an excellent predictor of changes of economic activity in Canada. As a general rule, when long-term interest rates have been much above short-term rates, strong increases in output have followed within about a year; however, whenever the yield curve has been inverted for any extended period of time, a recession has followed. Similar findings exist for other countries, including the United States. But although Canadian and U.S. interest rates generally move quite closely together, the Canadian yield curve has been distinctly better at predicting future Canadian output. The explanation given for this result is that the term spread has reflected both current monetary conditions, which affect short-term interest rates, and expected real returns on investment and expectations of inflation, which are the main determinants of long-term rates. This article is mainly a summary of econometric work done at the Bank. It also touches on some of the extensive recent literature in this area.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators
• December 7, 1994

  Repo, reverse repo and securities lending markets in Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1994-1995 Ron Morrow

  Repurchase agreements (repos), reverse repos and securities lending markets permit a variety of institutions to conduct a broad range of financial transactions efficiently. In addition, they allow financial market participants to augment the returns on their cash holdings and securities portfolios. Canadian repo and securities lending markets have grown rapidly in recent years, following the expansion of such markets in major financial centres around the world; the volume of transactions in Canada now averages between $35 billion and $50 billion per day. The author notes that structural and regulatory changes in Canada have played important roles in promoting this growth. The vast majority of repo and securities lending transactions involve securities issued by the Government of Canada—principally Government of Canada bonds.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets