What happens after Governing Council sets the policy interest rate: Inside the implementation framework that makes monetary policy work Staff analytical paper 2026-45 Kaetlynd McRae Setting the target rate is the most visible part of monetary policy, but the monetary policy implementation framework is what helps ensure that decision is reflected in financial markets. Through the design and use of its tools and facilities, the Bank of Canada helps keep short-term market interest rates close to the policy target, while preserving incentives for market participants to trade and actively manage liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E51, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
A New Approach to Estimating Portfolio-Balance Models of the Yield Curve Staff working paper 2026-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios Portfolio-balance models of the yield curve are notoriously hard to estimate. This paper offers a simple, two-step estimation approach that can be implemented with standard term structure estimation methods. In our application to U.S. Treasury data, our method recovers economically interpretable drivers of the yield curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Hedge funds and bond market liquidity dynamics at the onset of the 2026 Middle East conflict Staff analytical paper 2026-42 Vincent Meh, Jabir Sandhu, Andreas Uthemann We investigate whether hedge funds contributed to Government of Canada bond market illiquidity at the onset of the Middle East war in early 2026. We find no evidence they did. Hedge funds remained active in primary auctions, while their secondary market trading remained broadly consistent with their usual relative-value strategies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23, G24 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
Uncovering the use of haircuts in the Canadian repo market Staff analytical paper 2026-39 Sadia Anum, Jabir Sandhu, Adrian Walton We show that haircuts are rarely used in the Canadian dealer-to-client repo market and their usage did not increase materially during past stress events. Usage is concentrated among wealth managers and some foreign official institutions, likely reflecting regulatory or internal requirements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2025 global monitoring report Staff analytical paper 2026-37 Thomas Thorn, Sylvia Xie We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2024. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Time-Inconsistent Manager Incentives and Capital Formation Staff working paper 2026-25 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Josef Schroth, Tamon Takamura, Yaz Terajima In a dynamic model with limited commitment, aggregate payout-based compensation induces managers to raise outside equity yet invest too little today. Per-share compensation eliminates the dilution motive and restores efficient investment, but it does so through slower capital accumulation that better protects incumbent shareholder value. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32, G34, J, J3, J33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models
Assessing risks to oil prices through options markets Sparks at Bank article Harshbir Kaur, Eugene Trostin, Rishi Vala After the war in the Middle East began, futures markets hinted at how long oil prices could stay above their pre-war levels. Options on those futures further reveal how investors see the range and balance of risks around future oil prices—which helps central banks assess risks to inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Boundaries of Bank Funding: The Case of Canadian Cash ETFs Staff analytical paper 2026-32 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Vincent Meh, Jayden Plener The rise and transformation of Canadian cash ETFs highlight that banking liquidity regulation affects more than bank resilience. By changing the relative attractiveness of deposits and securities, it can shape where asset managers allocate their cash across the financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Central Clearing in Repo Markets: Do the Benefits Extend to Non-Dealers? Staff analytical paper 2026-31 Danny Auger, Adrian Walton This note examines whether central clearing of repos benefits non-dealer participants in Canadian fixed-income markets. While prior research highlights lower funding and balance-sheet costs for dealers, less is known about client effects. Understanding these broader implications is important for assessing central clearing’s contribution to market efficiency and resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure
The investor base for sovereign debt: Why diversification matters Staff analytical paper 2026-29 Sam Foxall, Jeffrey Gao Sovereign borrowing is rising, just as central banks are stepping back. Meanwhile, commercial bank holdings of sovereign bonds remain well below pre-global financial crisis levels. This leaves foreign investors and investment funds, often hedge funds, to absorb more of this growing supply. Their greater involvement supports liquidity and robust auction results, but it can also concentrate risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G28, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation