Search

With geopolitical uncertainty elevated and Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico under review, risks around the outlook are unusually high.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.

US tariffs remain elevated. The future of trade in North America continues to be highly uncertain.

Canadian businesses continue their efforts to expand exports to countries other than the United States. Trade tensions are also leading Canadian businesses to rely less on US imports.

The future of Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico is unclear. A review of the agreement could lead to many possible outcomes, and these can have a wide range of impacts on the Canadian economy.

This guide explains the questions you will need to answer in PSP Connect and helps identify the documents and information needed to complete and submit an annual report to the Bank of Canada. You are required to submit your completed annual report form to the Bank by March 31 each year.

Results of the fourth-quarter 2025 survey show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers. As a result, even though labour market conditions improved somewhat, the CSCE indicator declined slightly. Expectations for near-term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long-term inflation eased below pre-pandemic levels.

Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%.

10:30 (ET)
The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada.

On Monday, January 19, 2026, the Bank of Canada will release the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.