Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Staff working paper 2016-51 Leonid Karasik, Danny Leung, Ben Tomlin In order to understand what drives aggregate fluctuations, many macroeconomic models point to aggregate shocks and discount the contribution of firm-specific shocks. Recent research from other developed countries, however, has found that aggregate fluctuations are in part driven by idiosyncratic shocks to large firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, L, L6 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff analytical note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030 Staff working paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff discussion paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles Staff working paper 2016-2 Marc-André Letendre, Joel Wagner We add agency costs as in Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
November 13, 2014 Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Lori Rennison, Farid Novin, Matthieu Verstraete At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, D24, E, E2, E22, F, F2, F20, L, L1, L10, L2, L20, M, M1, M10, O, O3, O31, O4, O47