On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access Staff working paper 2025-19 Fabienne Schneider The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G19, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff analytical note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
The Optimum Quantity of Central Bank Reserves Staff working paper 2025-15 Jonathan Witmer This paper analyzes the optimal quantity of central bank reserves in an economy where reserves and other financial assets provide liquidity benefits. Using a static model, I derive a constrained Friedman rule that characterizes the socially optimal level of reserves, demonstrating that this quantity is neither necessarily large nor small but depends on the marginal benefits of reserves relative to alternative safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi Staff working paper 2025-12 Phoebe Tian, Yu Zhu This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G2, G20, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Risk-Free Uncollateralized Lending in Decentralized Markets: An Introduction to Flash Loans Staff discussion paper 2025-6 Jack Mandin A flash loan is a special type of uncollateralized loan with zero default risk. I document the use for flash loans across major blockchains that are Ethereum-Virtual-Machine-compatible. Flash loans expand access to liquidity, and highly sophisticated actors use them for many practical applications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G1, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Will Asset Managers Dash for Cash? Implications for Central Banks Staff discussion paper 2025-5 David Cimon, Jean-Philippe Dion, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu We consider ways central banks could adapt in the event of an increased risk of a dash for cash from asset managers. We explore ideas such as new facilities that ease asset managers’ ability to convert existing assets to cash or new assets with liquidity that central banks would guarantee. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices Staff analytical note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Estimating the inflation risk premium Staff analytical note 2025-9 Bruno Feunou, Gitanjali Kumar Is there a risk of de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the near term? We estimate the inflation risk premium using traditional asset pricing models to answer this question. The risk of de-anchoring is elevated compared with the period before the COVID-19 pandemic and is higher in the United States than in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C58, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Crisis facilities as a source of public information Staff analytical note 2025-7 Lerby Ergun During the COVID-19 financial market crisis, central banks introduced programs to support liquidity in important core funding markets. As well as acting as a backstop to market prices, these programs produce useful trading data on prevailing market conditions. When summary information from this data is shared publicly, it can help market participants understand current conditions and aid the recovery of market functioning. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
The new repo tri-party Canadian Collateral Management Service: Benefits to the financial system and to the Bank of Canada Staff analytical note 2025-6 Philippe Muller, Maksym Padalko The Canadian Collateral Management Service (CCMS) is a new tri-party collateral management service offered by the TMX Group and Clearstream. CCMS will enhance Canada’s financial infrastructure for securities financing transactions, including for the repurchase, or repo, market that is a core funding market in Canada. We explain the importance of the repo market and describe the benefits of the CCMS for market participants and for the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures