Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32
Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32
Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns Staff Discussion Paper 2021-16 Karim McDaniels, Nico Palesch, Sanjam Suri, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff Working Paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33
COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment Staff Analytical Note 2021-8 Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan, Juan Ortega, Callie Symmers Despite COVID-19 challenges, bold policy measures in Canada have helped businesses manage cash flow pressures and kept insolvency filings low. But the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, and the financial health of some firms may further deteriorate over the next year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G32, G33, G38
Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-13 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, H, H5
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers Staff Working Paper 2021-9 João Granja, Nuno Paixao We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G20, G21, G28, G3, G34, L, L1, L11
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-26 Min Jae Kim, Jonathan Witmer Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32
Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation Staff Working Paper 2020-43 Josef Schroth Should managers be paid in stock options if they provide stock-market participants with information about the firm? This paper studies how firm owners trade off the benefit of stock-price incentives and better-informed market participants against the cost of potential stock-price manipulation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D86, G, G1, G14, G3, G32, G34, M, M1, M12, M4, M41
The Canadian corporate investment gap Staff Analytical Note 2020-19 Chris D'Souza, Timothy Grieder, Daniel Hyun, Jonathan Witmer Business investment has been lower than expected in Canada and abroad since the financial crisis of 2007–09. This corporate investment gap is mirrored in firms’ other financing decisions, as they have increased cash holdings and dividend payments and decreased issuance of debt and equity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32