Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors Staff analytical note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth? Staff analytical note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports Staff discussion paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness