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Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory

Staff discussion paper 2017-13 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Carolyn A. Wilkins
For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty.
October 25, 2023

Press Conference: Monetary Policy Report – October 2023

Release of the Monetary Policy Report — Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem and Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor (11:00 (ET) approx.).

August 18, 2002

The Role of Simple Rules in the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy

The third strategy employed by the Bank when dealing with uncertainty is the consideration of appropriate simple reaction functions or "rules" for the setting of the policy interest rate. Since John Taylor's presentation of his much-discussed rule, research on simple policy rules has exploded. Simple rules have several advantages. In particular, they are easy to construct and communicate and are believed by some to be robust, in the sense of generating good results in a variety of economic models. This article provides an overview of the recent research regarding the usefulness and robustness of simple monetary policy rules, particularly in models of the Canadian economy. It also describes and explains the role of simple rules in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada.
January 28, 2026

Press Conference: Monetary Policy Report – January 2026

Release of the Monetary Policy Report – Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers (10:30 (ET) approx.).

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