January 20, 2025 Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2024 Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that overall business conditions remain subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in activity. Sales outlooks continue to show signs of improvement after a period of weakness. Yet many businesses still have spare capacity, which is reducing their need to expand. Firms expect cost growth, including wages, to soften further. Expectations for inflation moved slightly higher but remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
January 7, 2016 Life After Liftoff: Divergence and U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Mayor’s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario Governor Poloz talks about the global commodity price shock and how it is leading to economic and financial divergence. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
January 19, 2010 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 18, 2012 Monetary Policy Report – January 2012 The Canadian economy is estimated to have grown by 2.4 per cent in 2011, and is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2012, and 2.8 per cent in 2013, returning to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013. Total CPI inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target by the 3rd quarter of 2013. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
September 19, 2000 A New System of Fixed Dates for Announcing Changes to the Bank Rate In November 2000, the Bank of Canada introduced a new system of eight "fixed" or pre-specified dates each year for announcing any changes to the official interest rate it uses to implement monetary policy. This paper describes the basic features of the proposed approach, elaborates its key advantages and identifies issues for consultation.
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios Staff analytical note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
November 9, 2000 Monetary Policy Report – November 2000 Over the last six months, most countries have continued to register strong economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest? Staff working paper 2026-6 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luis Uzeda Can monetary policy influence the neutral real interest rate (r-star)? Using a new statistical model, we show that interest rate hikes tend to lower r-star and long-run growth, but that monetary policy explains only a small share of the long-run decline in r-star. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective Staff working paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
September 9, 2021 Monetary policy as the recovery progresses Speech summary Tiff Macklem Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank of Canada’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He also talks about how the Bank could adjust monetary policy once the economy needs less support. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework