Markups and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic Staff analytical note 2023-8 Olga Bilyk, Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan We find that prices and costs for consumer-oriented firms moved roughly one-for-one during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means firms fully passed rising costs through to the prices they charged. However, our results are suggestive, given data limitations and the uncertainty associated with estimating markups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D4, E, E2, E3, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures Staff working paper 2023-30 Chang Liu, Yinxi Xie We study the impact government expenditure has on inflation. We find that changes in government expenditure account for a substantial portion of inflation variations. We also find that inflation and inflation expectations respond negatively to fiscal spending shocks, reaffirming the supply-side channel through which inflation responds to fiscal expansions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
August 27, 2024 How high productivity helps fight inflation Higher productivity helps keep prices down and wages up. It gives workers more money to spend and increases the value they get when they spend it. And it allows businesses to weather cost increases without having to raise prices. All together, these factors drive economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
December 14, 2007 The Costs of Inflation in New Keynesian Models Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Steve Ambler Ambler describes three new channels through which inflation affects economic welfare in New Keynesian models. These channels were absent from traditional analyses and may have caused researchers to underestimate the costs associated with variable inflation, even at relatively low levels of inflation. The article concludes with a preliminary assessment of the quantitative importance of the new channels and their significance for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 2, 2006 Another Look at the Inflation-Target Horizon Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Donald Coletti, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins The conduct of monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework requires the establishment of an inflation-target horizon, which is the average time it takes inflation to return to the target. Policy-makers have an interest in communicating this horizon, since it is likely to help anchor inflation expectations. This article focuses on the determination of the appropriate policy horizon by reporting on two recent Bank of Canada studies. The evidence suggests that the current target horizon of six to eight quarters remains appropriate. It is important to note that the duration of the optimal inflation-target horizon varies widely, depending on the combination of shocks to the economy. In rare cases when the financial accelerator is triggered by a persistent shock, such as an asset-price bubble, it may be appropriate to take a longer view of the inflation-target horizon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
October 5, 2005 The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Christopher Ragan An essential element of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting framework is a floating exchange rate that is free to adjust in response to shocks that affect the Canadian and world economies. This floating rate plays an important role in the transmission mechanism for monetary policy. A practical question is how the Bank of Canada incorporates currency movements into the monetary policy decision-making process. Only after determining the cause and persistence of exchange rate change, and its likely net effect on aggregate demand, can the Bank decide on the appropriate policy response to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable. Ragan reviews the need to target inflation and the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, including the role of the exchange rate, before describing two types of exchange rate movements and their implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics Staff working paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, E32, E37, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
October 6, 2022 What’s happening to inflation and why it matters Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation has evolved in recent months and explains what the Bank is watching as it takes action to return inflation to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 26, 2024 Sticking the landing: Keeping inflation at 2% Remarks Rhys R. Mendes Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes discusses how monetary policy worked to bring inflation back down to target and why the Bank wants inflation to stay close to 2%. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Understanding the resurgence of food inflation in 2025 Sparks at Bank article Olga Bilyk Inflation in grocery prices picked up in 2025, largely due to rising cost pressures that emerged in late 2024 and worked their way through supply chains. Compared with the cost pressures experienced during the COVID‑19 pandemic, these have been more limited, narrower in scope and more commonly tied to imported items. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures