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In 2006, the Bank initiated a research program exploring two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target. This article discusses progress to date, places the Bank's findings in the context of a broader literature, and identifies avenues for future research.

Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about setting monetary policy when supply shocks have more influence on inflation.

Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.

This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.

One of the most important factors that must be considered if countries are thinking about lowering the target level of inflation much below 2 per cent is the zero interest bound. Targeting inflation rates that are too low, the authors note, may restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to economic shocks by limiting the amount by which interest rates can be eased.

This survey took place between August 2 and August 23, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in September. Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have continued to rise because consumers anticipate supply chain disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist. In contrast, expectations for inflation five years ahead have eased to near pre-pandemic levels. Still, consumers are more divided this quarter about where inflation will end up in the long term.

Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an economic update and discusses the relationship between supply bottlenecks and inflation.

Inflation in Canada is still too high but has declined from its peak. As the effects of higher interest rates continue to spread through the economy, and with declines in energy prices and improved supply chains, inflation is projected to fall to around 3% in the middle of 2023 and reach the 2% target in 2024.

Monetary policy is working to reduce inflationary pressures and inflation is coming down, although it will take more time to see if this progress proves durable. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% into the second quarter of 2024, ease below 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to target in 2025.

Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation and their expectations for inflation over the next year have declined this quarter, although they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Perceptions of financial stress have improved. And, given recent interest rate cuts and lower inflation, fewer consumers reported reducing their spending. However, consumers expect interest rates to remain elevated, which is affecting their spending decisions. Perceptions of the labour market have weakened further, with young consumers reporting a more pronounced deterioration than others. Still, overall, job prospects are close to survey averages.