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We are three years into the global financial crisis, and its dynamics still dominate the economic outlook. In particular, broad forces of bank, household, and sovereign deleveraging can be expected to add to the variability and temper the pace of global economic growth in the years ahead.

We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities.

The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more ’inclusive’ by running the economy hot for longer during expansions.

For the first time in two years, firms, on balance, reported an improvement in their past sales activity. While the balances of opinion on future sales growth and investment are lower than in recent surveys, and firms are concerned about global uncertainties, overall, they are positive about the outlook for business activity over the next 12 months.

The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

The autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that firms’ expectations continue to diverge as they gradually adjust to an environment of weaker commodity prices and a lower Canadian dollar. The overall sales and investment outlook improved, owing in part to continued support from U.S. demand. However, business sentiment remains weak for firms directly and indirectly tied to the resource sector.

Businesses are positive about the economic outlook. Hiring and investment intentions are strong, while future sales are expected to increase at about the same pace as in the past 12 months.

Supplemental questions on the appreciation of the Canadian dollar - Spring 2006

Overall, businesses continue to be positive about the outlook for the next 12 months. While survey responses generally still indicate modest growth, with many firms citing headwinds from strong competition and moderate demand, the strength in commodity prices has led to increased optimism among those firms tied to commodity-related activity.

Growth in the Canadian economy is projected to reach 2.8 per cent this year before slowing to 2.0 per cent next year and 1.6 per cent in 2019.

Expectations regarding future sales growth are essentially unchanged from the last survey. Investment and employment intentions have declined from the very high levels reported in the previous survey, but continue to be solid.