March 6, 2010 By All Accounts By All Accounts is the fifth and final book in the Bank's souvenir history series. This volume presents a portrait of the Bank from the perspective of outside observers, showing how Canadians have perceived the performance of their central bank over the decades through the eyes of those who monitor its work on the public's behalf. Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs, Souvenir books
Monetary Policy, Private Debt and Financial Stability Risks Staff working paper 2016-59 Gregory Bauer, Eleonora Granziera Can monetary policy be used to promote financial stability? We answer this question by estimating the impact of a monetary policy shock on private-sector leverage and the likelihood of a financial crisis. Impulse responses obtained from a panel VAR model of 18 advanced countries suggest that the debt-to-GDP ratio rises in the short run following an unexpected tightening in monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C23, E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts? Staff working paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Adoption Costs of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Italian ATM Cards Staff working paper 2017-8 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Gregor W. Smith, Angelika Welte The discrete choice to adopt a financial innovation affects a household’s exposure to inflation and transactions costs. We model this adoption decision as being subject to an unobserved cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
Non-homothetic Preferences and the Demand Channel of Inflation Staff working paper 2025-30 Stephen Murchison An alternative to the standard CES aggregator, based on non-homothetic household preferences, is proposed. Specifically, the elasticity of substitution between goods declines during periods of strong per-capita consumption and vice versa, giving firms an incentive to adjust their desired markup in response to the state of demand. Empirical evidence favouring a direct role for per-capita consumption demand in inflation determination for Canada is presented. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E5, E52, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff discussion paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries* Staff working paper 2026-31 Guillermo Calvo, Emilio Colombi, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E31, E4, E44, F, F3, F32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash Use Over 13 Years Staff discussion paper 2024-1 Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu, Matthew Shimoda We present results from the 2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares based on a three-day shopping diary. We also assess various factors associated with long-term trends in cash use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
March 16, 2008 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2008 Cover Page Canada's First Coinage Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
May 13, 1998 Canada-U.S. long-term interest differentials in the 1990s Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1998 Kevin Clinton Long-term Canada-U.S. interest spreads have changed remarkably during the 1990s. The unusually wide spreads of the first half of the decade have given way to an unprecedented run of negative yield differentials. In this article, the author examines the conceptual aspects of yields on international assets and their application to the Canada-U.S. situation. Prior to 1995, investors were unsure that, over the long run, inflation would meet the targets set by the government and the Bank. Policy credibility was undermined by large budget deficits and political uncertainty. In the second half of the decade, confidence was re-established as the fiscal positions of governments improved, long-run price stability became established, and political concerns about Quebec lessened. As long as these fundamentals hold, long-term rates should remain relatively low, even when short-term rates rise. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles