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An effective exchange rate is a measure of the value of a country's currency vis-à-vis the currencies of its most important trading partners. The Bank of Canada has created a new Canadian-dollar effective exchange rate index (CERI) to replace the C-6 index that it currently uses. The CERI uses multilateral trade weights published by the International Monetary Fund and includes the six currencies of countries or economic zones with the largest share of Canada's international trade. As such, it better reflects the recent changes in Canada's trade profile, including the rise in the importance of China and Mexico and the relative decline in importance of Europe and Japan in Canada's international trade. The author describes the methodology and construction of the new index and reviews the advantages it offers over the C-6, particularly the use of multilateral trade weights, the inclusion of trade in services, and the use of more recent trade data.

The autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that firms’ expectations continue to diverge as they gradually adjust to an environment of weaker commodity prices and a lower Canadian dollar. The overall sales and investment outlook improved, owing in part to continued support from U.S. demand. However, business sentiment remains weak for firms directly and indirectly tied to the resource sector.

This article focuses on the role that loans backed by housing collateral play in amplifying housing booms and, more generally, procyclicality in the housing market. The author uses a model developed to include borrower and lender households, as well as a housing market, to examine the impact that altering the loan-to-value ratio (either permanently or countercyclically) might have on the volatility of house prices and mortgage debt.

The Bank’s outlook for inflation and overall economic activity in Canada to the end of 2002 has not changed fundamentally from that presented in the May Monetary Policy Report.

Responses to the autumn survey point to less optimism among firms than in the summer survey. Indicators of future business activity, capacity constraints and price pressures have all moved down from the levels recorded in the previous survey.

Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses monetary policy decision making and how the Bank assesses the underlying trend in inflation.

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Roman Antoninianus

The coins form part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada.
Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa.

The process that the Bank of Canada follows to make its monetary policy decisions has evolved over time. This process is very information-intensive and collaborative, drawing on the expertise, judgment and analysis of many people. This article describes monetary policy decision making at the Bank, and discusses some common misconceptions about monetary policy and the process.

The global economy has continued to grow at a robust pace since the July Monetary Policy Report Update.

Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook, although some forward-looking indicators have eased from the levels recorded in recent surveys, and the strength in commodity prices has raised expectations for costs and inflation.

Erratum: Please note that the legend for Chart 9 (French version only) should read as follows: au-dessus de 3 % , rather than au-dessous de 3 %