November 30, 2016 Research Update - November 2016 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth Staff working paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles Staff working paper 2016-2 Marc-André Letendre, Joel Wagner We add agency costs as in Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff analytical note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs Staff working paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt Staff working paper 2018-38 Dmitry Matveev This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
July 19, 2010 Economic Research at the Bank of Canada, 1935-65 A retrospective of economic research at the Bank of Canada from 1935 to 1965. Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs
June 7, 2018 Financial System Review: Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Risks—June 2018 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that high household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities remain elevated, policy measures continue to improve the resilience of the financial system. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats to an interconnected financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
March 20, 2025 Navigating tariff uncertainty Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the US trade conflict and uncertainty is hurting business and consumer confidence. He also outlines what the Bank is doing to ensure the trade conflict doesn’t cause widespread or persistent inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
April 14, 2006 Trends in Retail Payments and Insights from Public Survey Results Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Varya Taylor While the volume and value of bank notes have continued to increase, the use of cash as a payment method has been affected by the growing use of electronic alternatives. Taylor reports on a 2004 Bank of Canada survey of consumers' payment habits and their perceptions of cash and its alternatives, including their confidence in the security of bank notes. Analysis of the survey results shows that numerous factors affect the demand for bank notes, including income, age, education, gender, the use of debit and credit cards, and the perceived convenience of cash. Taylor also includes a report on the construction of a bank note confidence index that will serve as a benchmark for future surveys. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles