Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44
High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65
October 30, 2025 Frequently asked questions about retail payments supervision Find answers to common questions about retail payments supervision.
October 29, 2025 Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼% Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025 Canada’s economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—In focus—Shifts in Cost Pressures Cost pressures are expected to ease. But businesses continue to face high input costs due to US tariffs and the broader reconfiguration of global trade.
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Overview The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2½%.