The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
Central Bank Liquidity Facilities and Market Making Staff Working Paper 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We create a theoretical model of central bank asset purchases. The model helps explain how, in a crisis, these purchases ease pressures on investment dealers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
Dynamic Privacy Choices Staff Working Paper 2022-8 Shota Ichihashi Consumers often express concerns about lack of privacy, but they still give up a lot of data to digital platforms. This paper builds a dynamic game-theoretic model of data collection and privacy protection, which potentially explains consumers’ behaviour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83
February 28, 2022 Research Update - February 2022 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve Staff Working Paper 2022-7 Christian Friedrich, Peter Selcuk Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, F, F6
A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality Staff Discussion Paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58
Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies Staff Working Paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44
Payment Coordination and Liquidity Efficiency in the New Canadian Wholesale Payments System Staff Discussion Paper 2022-3 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang We study the impact of the Bank of Canada’s choice of settlement mechanism in Lynx on participant behaviors, liquidity usage, payment delays and the overall operational efficiency of the new system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58
Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review Staff Discussion Paper 2022-2 Felipe Alves, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Katya Kartashova, Soyoung Lee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See, Yaz Terajima, Alexander Ueberfeldt The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D25, D3, D31, E, E2, E22, E24, E5, E50, E52