Money and payments

The digital age is reshaping the very nature of money and payments. Our research aims to ensure Canadians have access to safe, reliable and convenient forms of payment—including cash—now and into the future.

Recent technological advancements have paved the way for new payment options and new participants in the payments ecosystem, a trend that will certainly continue to shape how people buy things and transfer funds in the coming years. These innovations can make financial services more efficient and cheaper to deliver to Canadians. But they also increase risks, such as fraud and data breaches.

This is why our research is so critical. We study how the rise of digital currencies and electronic payments affects our ability to fulfill our core functions, including keeping inflation on target, promoting financial stability and issuing bank notes that Canadians can trust.

Examples of areas we are researching:

  • the payment innovations that could have the biggest impact on demand for cash in the future
  • ways to ensure Canadians can continue to access and pay with cash as patterns of cash use shift
  • the reasons why cross-border payments are expensive and slow
  • how to balance the speed and convenience of the retail payment system with risks like fraud and data breaches
  • the benefits and pitfalls of integrating tokenized assets into payment systems

Cash and bank notes

The Bank is the sole issuer of bank notes in Canada, and we want Canadians to use these notes with confidence and pride. And, in fact, they do: even with new and innovative payment methods available, cash still accounts for one out of every five transactions at the point of sale. We consistently examine the demand for and use of cash, as well as its accessibility and acceptance within the economy. This requires an understanding of current trends and emerging challenges, including developments in cryptoassets and financial technology (fintech).

Payments

The Bank is committed to understanding and shaping the evolving landscape of payment options to ensure Canadians benefit from any changes. As new technologies and payment service providers emerge, we conduct research to address challenges such those related to cross-border transactions, access to central bank payment systems and the prospective design and structure of the payments ecosystem. Additionally, we are assessing how the Bank’s new role supervising retail payments service providers fits within this broader context. Our research informs policy development and regulatory oversight with the end goal of delivering better outcomes for Canadians.

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Bitcoin Awareness and Usage in Canada: An Update

Staff analytical note 2018-23 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls
The results of our 2017 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (December 12 to 15, 2017) when compared with those from 2016 show that Bitcoin “awareness” increased from 64 to 85 per cent, while ownership increased from 2.9 to 5.0 per cent. Most Bitcoin purchasers are using the cryptocurrency as an investment and not as a means of payment for goods or services.

Bootstrapping Mean Squared Errors of Robust Small-Area Estimators: Application to the Method-of-Payments Data

Staff working paper 2018-28 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo, Pierre Nguimkeu
This paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean squared errors of robust small-area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations.

Swedish Riksbank Notes and Enskilda Bank Notes: Lessons for Digital Currencies

Staff working paper 2018-27 Ben Fung, Scott Hendry, Warren E. Weber
This paper examines the experience of Sweden with government notes and private bank notes to determine how well the Swedish experience corresponds to that of Canada and the United States. Sweden is important to study because it has had government notes in circulation for more than 350 years, and it had government notes before private bank notes.

Analysis of Asymmetric GARCH Volatility Models with Applications to Margin Measurement

Staff working paper 2018-21 Elena Goldman, Xiangjin Shen
We explore properties of asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models in the threshold GARCH (GTARCH) family and propose a more general Spline-GTARCH model, which captures high-frequency return volatility, low-frequency macroeconomic volatility as well as an asymmetric response to past negative news in both autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and GARCH terms.

The (Un)Demand for Money in Canada

Staff working paper 2018-20 Casey Jones, Geoffrey R. Dunbar
A novel dataset from the Bank of Canada is used to estimate the deposit functions for banknotes in Canada for three denominations: $1,000, $100 and $50. The broad flavour of the empirical findings is that denominations are different monies, and the structural estimates identify the underlying sources of the non-neutrality.
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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. The research is non-partisan and evidence based. All research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each paper or article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.

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