Monetary policy

Our commitment is to keep inflation low, stable and predictable. To do this, we must understand what causes inflation and ensure our tools and framework remain fit for purpose in a world with more frequent supply disruptions.

In recent years, Canada has faced high inflation and used exceptional monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing, to restore price stability. Looking back on this period offers a valuable opportunity to understand the underlying drivers of inflation and evaluate the effectiveness of these monetary policy tools.

The future of the economic environment remains uncertain, and structural challenges are making both the global and Canadian economies more susceptible to supply disruptions. That makes it important to gain a comprehensive understanding of how these challenges affect production, employment, inflation dynamics and the transmission of monetary policy.

Studying these issues will help monetary policy adapt to changes in the economy and maintain price stability. We are looking at issues in several areas, including:

  • the pricing strategies that firms use, including during supply shocks
  • the best approaches for setting monetary policy in periods of high uncertainty
  • the impact of monetary policy on the supply and demand of housing
  • the effectiveness of various monetary policy tools used during the COVID-19 pandemic
  • the ability of flexible inflation-targeting to maintain price stability when the economy is unpredictable

Inflation dynamics

Our research on inflation dynamics aims to further our understanding of the factors behind inflation, particularly since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we are using new data sources, innovative research methods and advanced economic models. For example, we are using novel business- and product-level data to explore how businesses pass on costs to consumers. Similarly, consumer-level data help us understand how households adjust their spending and expectations as inflation rises and falls.

Transmission and conduct of monetary policy

Canada is entering a period of rapid economic transformation. In this context, we need to understand how monetary policy affects different households and businesses and how it works its way through the economy. We must also find the best way to set monetary policy and manage risks—responding to trade-offs between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation—particularly if Canada faces more frequent supply shocks.

Monetary policy tools and implementation

The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the Bank to use extraordinary tools, such as quantitative easing. The use of these tools has had a significant impact on the size and structure of the Bank’s balance sheet. Our research focuses on the impact and effectiveness of these tools and on how the Bank can effectively influence market interest rates with an expanded balance sheet.

Monetary policy framework

Jointly with the Government of Canada, the Bank reviews its monetary policy framework every five years to keep pace with changes in the economic environment. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, more frequent shocks and unprecedented challenges have increased volatility, generated persistent imbalances in the housing market and reduced the reliability of our key measures of underlying inflation. Our research will help future reviews of our framework to ensure that monetary policy remains effective in promoting the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.

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How Indigenous-owned firms finance their operations

Businesses that can’t easily access credit experience slower growth. Indigenous-owned firms are less likely than other firms in Canada to use conventional lending products—like loans or lines of credit from banks. We look at why Indigenous-owned businesses may face barriers to accessing credit.

Monetary Policy in a Volatile World: ToTEM Simulations

Using simulations of the Bank of Canada’s projection model, we assess inflation risks from greater supply-shock volatility and show that monetary policy faces sharper trade-offs, as stabilizing inflation increasingly comes at the cost of weaker real activity.

Everything You Want to Know About the Bank’s Standing Liquidity Facility… But were too afraid to ask!

Staff analytical paper 2026-26 Kaetlynd McRae, Jessie Ziqing Chen
The Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) is one of the Bank of Canada’s least discussed tools—and one of its most important. Embedded directly in Canada’s high value payment system, Lynx, the SLF operates quietly in the background every business day, ensuring the smooth settlement of payments and reinforcing the implementation of monetary policy.

Unpacking interest rate uncertainty in 2025

Staff analytical paper 2026-25 Harshbir Kaur, Rishi Vala
Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions.

Deglobalization and Trade Fragmentation: Implications for the Inflation-Output Trade-Off

Staff analytical paper 2026-24 Matteo Cacciatore, Daniela Hauser, Yuko Imura
How do deglobalization and rising trade costs affect monetary policy? A two-country, multi-sector model of Canada and the United States shows that bilateral trade-cost shocks generate a manageable inflation–output trade-off under the existing framework — but larger or more persistent shocks would make look-through policies costlier and riskier.
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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. The research is non-partisan and evidence based. All research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each paper or article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.

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