Bio

Louis Morel is a Senior Policy Advisor in the Financial Stability Department (FSD) at the Bank of Canada. As such, he oversees the production of the Bank’s Financial System Review. Prior to working in FSD, Louis held various positions of increasing responsibility in the Bank’s Canadian and International economic analysis departments. During 2019 and 2020, he also took on a secondment at Employment and Social Development Canada where he was the Director General of the Economic Policy Directorate. Louis holds an MA in economics from Queen’s University.

Research Field(s): Applied Econometrics Business Cycles Forecasting Household Finance Housing International Macroeconomics International Trade and Finance Labour Economics Macroeconomics

Staff research

Analyzing the house price boom in the suburbs of Canada’s major cities during the pandemic

Staff analytical note 2022-7 Louis Morel
We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R23, R3, R32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff analytical note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

May 11, 2017

Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
May 14, 2015

The Slowdown in Global Trade

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel
Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes: test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada" (with Benoit Perron), L'Actualité Économique, vol. 79(4), pp 481-502, December 2003.