Bio

Jean-Philippe Cayen was appointed Senior Policy Advisor in the International Economic Analysis Department in December 2018. In this capacity, he is part of the leadership team that guides and manages the work of the department. He leads the department’s contribution to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report and conducts analysis and research on current issues affecting the international economy. His primary interests include economic forecasting and business cycle analysis.

Mr. Cayen started his career at the Bank in 2000 as an economist in the Monetary and Financial Analysis Department. He has held several positions at the Bank over the years, including Director of the United States Division and Director of the Projection Division in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. He holds a master's degree in applied economics from HEC Montréal.

Staff research

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

Staff analytical note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness

An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

Staff discussion paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx
We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • “The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates”,
    (with Simon van Norden), The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 373-393, 2005.